Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2001

COLD FRONT IS POISED TO ENTER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CWFA. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS HAVE THE FRONT JUST WEST OF GLH. A COUPLE OF INTERESTING
THINGS TO NOTE: DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH (GLH,GWO,CBM) ARE IN THE
LOWER 60S...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWFA HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
THIS INDICATES MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GOOD CU FIELD IS ALSO POPPING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. 88D
INDICATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NE MS AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT IS THE MAIN PERIOD IN QUESTION. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE ALONG THE
GULF COAST BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...
IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LIS WILL RANGE FROM -2
TO -6...CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OVERNIGHT...AND THE
K INDEX WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. ALSO...RRQ OF 250 JET WILL BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA TONIGHT. THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY GOOD MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT. THAT HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF CHANGING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THE PAST
FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. CONVECTION SHOULD
STAY SCATTERED IN NATURE (LACK OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE) AND MAINLY BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE TONIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...THE CWFA WILL
BE DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND DEFINITELY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE TOO COOL
ON THE MINS...BUT MAX TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY REASONABLE. WILL MAKE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS...AND WILL MORE THAN LIKELY TAKE AVERAGE BETWEEN
MAV AND MOS FOR MINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH OVER THE
CWFA...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
JAN 55/78/54/81 3100
MEI 55/78/52/82 4100

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

32

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 AND 9 PM TODAY SOUTHEAST OF A CROSSETT
ARKANSAS TO INDIANOLA LINE...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A WINNSBORO
LOUISIANA...TO PORT GIBSON...TO BRANDON...TO DE KALB LINE. THIS
INCLUDES THE CITIES OF JACKSON...VICKSBURG...GREENWOOD...COLUMBUS...AND
BASTROP LOUISIANA. ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THESE AREAS.

NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA
ACROSS BOTH NORTHWEST AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AS WELL AS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS  WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END OVER NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHILE
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT REACH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY THIS EVENING. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BECAUSE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS
MINIMAL.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.