Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CDT WED APR 4 2001

REF.WW91
DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F KEEPING CAPES UP TO 2200-3000J/KG FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LIFTED INDEXES -8 TO -10. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
WIND FIELDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.  THE
E-W 850MB THETA-E 330+K RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CWFA GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND LIFTS NWD TOWARD MORNING(I.E. 850MB WIND SPEEDS DROP TO <10KTS).
CURRENT MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN STUCK IN THE RIDGE AXIS
FOR PAST 6-12HRS BUT MANAGES TO DRIFT EWD INTO AL BY 03Z. THAT
FEATURE AND LOSS OF LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
DIE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH FOG QUICKLY DEVELOPING THEREAFTER.

BY 06Z THE 18Z RUN OF MESO ETA SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REACH 140-220 J/KG OR BETTER FROM S TO N WHICH SHOULD HELP
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING TSRA. THAT INHIBITION WEAKENS TO NEAR ZERO
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE AFTERNOON
POPS OVER ABOUT NE HALF OF CWFA. THIS CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN BUILDING RIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD RAIN ITSELF OUT BY SUNSET.
WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY AND BACK FOG TO PATCHY STATUS AS SOME
RETURN SLY WIND BEGINS WITH RICH SURFACE AIR.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO STRONG SPRING STORM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STORM PROMISES A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A TRAILING SQUALL LINE EXPECTED
TO APPROACH NW MS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SRN END OF THIS LINE WILL
BE CONTROLLED BY STRONG WARM CAPPING EXPECTED TO MOVE E FROM SRN
PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WILL KEEP CHANCE TSRA FOR
SATURDAY AND WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS.

QPF DISCUSSION...AIRMASS REMAINS JUICY(1.5-1.6 PWATS)THROUGH 06Z
WITH DEFINITE FOCUSING BOUNDARY NEAR A CLEVELAND TO CARTHAGE TO
QUITMAN LINE. BELIEVE THAT 1-2+ AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY E OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOCALLY 3 AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
DUE TO SLOWER MOVING CELLS. NCEP QPFS LOOK TOO FAR E AND TOO
LIGHT IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED FORECAST...DRY AND VERY WARM RIDGE HOLDS FRIDAY SHIFTS JUST
FAR ENOUGH E FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO PREFERRED
ECMWF 593DM HIGH AT 500MB IN THE NERN GULF FOR SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
FOR NOW. THE NEXT PLAINS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
SO WILL INTRODUCE CLIMATOLOGY POPS.

.PRELIM NUMBERS
JAN 68/83/65/86/65 42-1-
MEI 65/82/64/85/64 5311-

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1110 AM CDT WED APR 04 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM GRENADA TO CARTHAGE TO LAUREL. ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA.

FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY EAST OF A KOSCIUSKO TO RALEIGH LINE AND SOUTH
OF A KOSCIUSKO TO MACON LINE...INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1147 AM CDT WED APR 4 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ...COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 AM    MERIDIAN                  MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   LAUDERDALE

0900 AM    MERIDIAN                  MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   LAUDERDALE

1110 AM    8 E LOUISVILLE            MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   WINSTON                        REPORTED BY CD OFFICE

1125 AM    BROOKSVILLE               MS   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   NOXUBEE

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 PM CDT WED APR 04 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A GREENWOOD TO CARTHAGE TO RALEIGH LINE. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LAKE VILLAGE
ARKANSAS TO PRENTISS MISSISSIPPI LINE. NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF A WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO BROOKHAVEN LINE. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE REQUIRED OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS EARLY TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY EAST OF A KOSCIUSKO TO RALEIGH LINE AND SOUTH
OF A KOSCIUSKO TO MACON LINE...INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.