Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CDT WED APR 4 2001

REF.WW91
DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F KEEPING CAPES UP TO 2200-3000J/KG FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LIFTED INDEXES -8 TO -10. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
WIND FIELDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.  THE
E-W 850MB THETA-E 330+K RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CWFA GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND LIFTS NWD TOWARD MORNING(I.E. 850MB WIND SPEEDS DROP TO <10KTS).
CURRENT MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN STUCK IN THE RIDGE AXIS
FOR PAST 6-12HRS BUT MANAGES TO DRIFT EWD INTO AL BY 03Z. THAT
FEATURE AND LOSS OF LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
DIE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH FOG QUICKLY DEVELOPING THEREAFTER.

BY 06Z THE 18Z RUN OF MESO ETA SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REACH 140-220 J/KG OR BETTER FROM S TO N WHICH SHOULD HELP
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING TSRA. THAT INHIBITION WEAKENS TO NEAR ZERO
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE AFTERNOON
POPS OVER ABOUT NE HALF OF CWFA. THIS CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN BUILDING RIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD RAIN ITSELF OUT BY SUNSET.
WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY AND BACK FOG TO PATCHY STATUS AS SOME
RETURN SLY WIND BEGINS WITH RICH SURFACE AIR.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO STRONG SPRING STORM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STORM PROMISES A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A TRAILING SQUALL LINE EXPECTED
TO APPROACH NW MS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SRN END OF THIS LINE WILL
BE CONTROLLED BY STRONG WARM CAPPING EXPECTED TO MOVE E FROM SRN
PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WILL KEEP CHANCE TSRA FOR
SATURDAY AND WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS.

QPF DISCUSSION...AIRMASS REMAINS JUICY(1.5-1.6 PWATS)THROUGH 06Z
WITH DEFINITE FOCUSING BOUNDARY NEAR A CLEVELAND TO CARTHAGE TO
QUITMAN LINE. BELIEVE THAT 1-2+ AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY E OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOCALLY 3 AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
DUE TO SLOWER MOVING CELLS. NCEP QPFS LOOK TOO FAR E AND TOO
LIGHT IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED FORECAST...DRY AND VERY WARM RIDGE HOLDS FRIDAY SHIFTS JUST
FAR ENOUGH E FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO PREFERRED
ECMWF 593DM HIGH AT 500MB IN THE NERN GULF FOR SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
FOR NOW. THE NEXT PLAINS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
SO WILL INTRODUCE CLIMATOLOGY POPS.

.PRELIM NUMBERS
JAN 68/83/65/86/65 42-1-
MEI 65/82/64/85/64 5311-

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 PM CDT WED APR 04 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A GREENWOOD TO CARTHAGE TO RALEIGH LINE. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LAKE VILLAGE
ARKANSAS TO PRENTISS MISSISSIPPI LINE. NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF A WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO BROOKHAVEN LINE. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE REQUIRED OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS EARLY TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY EAST OF A KOSCIUSKO TO RALEIGH LINE AND SOUTH
OF A KOSCIUSKO TO MACON LINE...INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 PM CDT WED APR 4 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ...COUNTY LOCATION....

1030 AM    MERIDIAN                  MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   LAUDERDALE                     RPTD BY EMERGENCY
                                          SERVICES AMBULANCE

1155 AM    1 W BROOKSVILLE           MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   NOXUBEE                        RPTD BY WATER
                                          DEPARTMENT

1205 PM    NEW HOPE                  MS   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   LOWNDES                        REPORTED BY COUNTY 911

1224 PM    1 W COLUMBUS              MS   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   LOWNDES                        RPTD BY COUNTY 911

1240 PM    NEW HOPE                  MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   LOWNDES                        REPORTED BY COUNTY 911

0214 PM    6 S KOSCIUSKO             MS   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   ATTALA                         RPTD BY CIVIL DEFENSE

0417 PM    DIXON                     MS   WIND DAMAGE
04/04/01   NESHOBA                        BARN DESTROYED BY HIGH
                                          WINDS RPTD BY 911

0420 PM    14 SW PHILADELPHIA        MS   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/04/01   NESHOBA                        RPTD BY COUNTY 911

0420 PM    14 SW PHILADELPHIA        MS   WIND SPEED 80MPH
04/04/01   NESHOBA                        RPTD BY 911

0430 PM    PHILADELPHIA              MS   FLOOD
04/04/01   NESHOBA                        EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF
                                          ROADS

0445 PM    UNION              x       MS   WIND DAMAGE
04/04/01   NEWTON                         TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN RPTD BY CD