Flash Flood Warning 104, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 131540
FFSJAN
ARC017-131730-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
938 AM CST THU DEC 13 2001

FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

CHICOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

UNTIL 1130 AM...

AT 935 AM...RADAR INDICATED THAT RAIN HAD TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED 
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WERE DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST 
FROM LOUISIANA...AND APPROACHING CHICOT COUNTY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGGRAVATE CURRENT FLOODING 
PROBLEMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT. IT IS 
IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR 
CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS.

LAT...LON 3309 9144 3305 9121 3336 9119 3353 9142

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 AM CST THU DEC 13 2001

PREFRONTAL CONVECTION BAND STALLING OUT THIS MORNING ALONG A KMEI-KBTR
LINE AND SHOWING SIGNS OF RETREATING ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
LOOPS. ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT ALONG A KCRP-KSHV-KMEM LINE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY TODAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR KELP LIFTS NEWD. ALL OF
CWFA IN WARM SECTOR WITH 65-70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS PUSHING NWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

SHORT TERM REMAINS WET AS 250-300% OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES(1.7-1.9) ENGULF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL BE REPOSITIONING FFA AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2-5 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS THAT JUST HAD 2-3 IN THE PAST 24 HRS
AS PREFER THE NGM/06Z MESOETA SCENARIOS FOR SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ON THE QSTNRY FRONT ALONG THE TX COAST. ALREADY SEEING SUPPORT FOR
THIS WAVE AS PROFILERS AT PALESTINE...WINFIELD AND LAKE CHARLES VWP
BACKING THE WINDS IN LOWER 5K FEET AT 08Z. LOOK FOR SURFACE LOW
FORMING NEAR KVCT TO TRACK NEAR KMLU BY LATE AFTERNOON AND KUOX BY
MIDNIGHT. A MID LEVEL JET STREAK(85-95KTS) MEETS THE LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE DELTA REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET OF 40-50KT AT 850MB(328K THETA-E AIR)TEAMS WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 150-170KT 300MB JET CORE IN THE OH VALLEY TO CREATE A
CLASSIC FRONTAL/SYNOPTIC FLASH FLOOD EVENT.

WILL PLACE MUCH OF CWFA IN FFA NW OF ABOUT A MERIDIAN TO MONTICELLO
LINE AS MODELS OF CHOICE HAVE RAIN DEVELOPING NWWD INTO THE DELTA
BEFORE NOON. WILL MENTION SEVERE TSRA FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SE OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE WHERE STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES PROGGED TO REACH
350-400 IN COMBINATION WITH CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG BETWEEN 21Z-03Z.
SPC ALSO CONSIDERING UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN SERN MS.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD LATE TONIGHT...RAINFALL ENDS RATHER
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS MODELS TENDING TO CLOSE OFF  THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE SRN PLAINS(I.E. ANOTHER SLOWER AND STRONGER TREND THAN
THE MODELS). THE EXTENDED PERIOD ENDS UP IN A TRANSITION TO ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND THUS DRYING OUT FOR A FEW DAYS.

JAN 68/47/57/40/64 ++-01
MEI 70/51/59/39/66 ++100

.JAN...
MS...FFA ALONG/NW OF A MERIDIAN-MONTICELLO LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LA...FFA ALL NE ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AR...FFA ALL EXTREME SE ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0517 AM CST THU DEC 13 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE OR ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM EUPORA TO KOSCIUSKO TO JACKSON TO NATCHEZ. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A MERIDIAN TO COLUMBIA
LINE WHERE THE AIR WILL BE THE MOST UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE INTERACTION OF THE
FRONT WITH UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO ALABAMA.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A MERIDIAN TO RALEIGH TO MONTICELLO LINE.
MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN NEAR BANK FULL AND MINOR
FLOODING HAS OCCURRED AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE ENHANCED AS MORE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OCCURS
REPEATEDLY OVER LOCATIONS WHICH ALREADY HAVE SATURATED GROUND.

THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

IF YOU LIVE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...KEEP ADVISED OF THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. BE READY
FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0517 AM CST THU DEC 13 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE OR ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM EUPORA TO KOSCIUSKO TO JACKSON TO NATCHEZ. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A MERIDIAN TO COLUMBIA
LINE WHERE THE AIR WILL BE THE MOST UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE INTERACTION OF THE
FRONT WITH UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO ALABAMA.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A MERIDIAN TO RALEIGH TO MONTICELLO LINE.
MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN NEAR BANK FULL AND MINOR
FLOODING HAS OCCURRED AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE ENHANCED AS MORE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OCCURS
REPEATEDLY OVER LOCATIONS WHICH ALREADY HAVE SATURATED GROUND.

THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

IF YOU LIVE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...KEEP ADVISED OF THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. BE READY
FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.