Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2001

MAIN EMPHASIS FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE THE HEAT
AND HIGH DEWPOINTS PUSHING US TO THE LOW EDGE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
WITH MAX AFTERNOON INDICES REACHING AROUND 105 DEGREES MONDAY.
CONSIDERATION ALSO GIVEN TO THE AFFECT OF DURATION OF CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

CURRENT KILX 88D INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA SOUTHEAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON TO NEAR RUSHVILLE LINE WITH A PERSISTANT CELL OVER THE
BLOOMINGTON AREA PAST FEW HOURS. ISOLATED VERY LOCALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE EXCEEDED ONE INCH IS SOME AREAS OF THE CWA.  WILL
CONTINUE TSRA IN AFFECTED ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THEY SHOULD
CEASE DIURANLLY.

ETA AND AVN HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AND WILL USE A COMPROMISE. THE 5H
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STAGGERING WEST OF ILLINOIS PAST 24 HOURS IS
PROGGED TO FALL OVER WITH A QUASI ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP INTO THE
MIDWEST BY TUE. RIPPLES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS IL...ONE
LATE TUE AND AGAIN SAT OR SUN. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WED. THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A LIFTING BOUNDARY FOR TSRA AND LOCALLY GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF
RAIN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE STATE FRI AND THEN START TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...REACHING A MOLINE TO
LAWRENCEVILLE LINE EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF TSRA
ACROSS THE CWA LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF TSRA IN ZONES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR POSSIBLE BRUSH WITH AN MESOCONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT MAY
FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS WIS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS. NOT TOO
MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS AND POPS FROM GOING ZONE FORECASTS.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

SPI GT 076/093 074/089 071 33463
PIA GT 075/092 073/088 066 33462
DEC GT 076/093 075/089 072 33463
CMI GT 075/093 075/O88 071 33463
MTO GT 076/093 076/089 072 33463
LWV GT 076/094 077/091 074 33465

.ILX...HEAT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SE IL.

PALMER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-221800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2001

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 105 TO 110 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

SMITH