Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

THUNDERSTORMS THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES OF CONCERN BEYOND.  VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM LOCATED OVER
COLORADO THIS MORNING.  LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS LOW INVOF
KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO ERN
NEBRASKA.  DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA
SHOWING GOOD PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST.  WATER VAPOR SHOWING SEVERAL
WAVES EJECTING AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM INTO WRN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT.  AVN IS
MUCH FASTER THAN ETA/NGM...ALTHO IT SEEMS TO BE HAVE BETTER HANDLE
AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  EXPECT INITIAL TSRA TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER CENTRAL/S CNTRL ZONES
WITH PRECIP LINGERING LONGER OVER SERN AREA.  SECONDARY AREA OF TSRA
ERUPTING TO THE WEST AND WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF
CWA.  ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION AS
LOW LIFTS OUT.  SFC GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE TIGHT AS WINDS SWITCH TO
NRLY DIRECTION AND WILL CARRY WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT...SYSTEM TO BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WITH COLD AIR
PUSHING SWD IN ITS WAKE.  PUSH OF COLD AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  EXPECT CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME
CLOUDS AROUND...BUT SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDS LATER IN THE DAY.
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S RANGE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AS RIDGING INCREASES TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PD.  LOW LEVEL WAA SETS UP BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL SEE WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
THROUGH THE WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW ATTM AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE
ANY MENTION.  GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES.

FCSTID = 16
ICT   45  64  40  73 /  30   5   0   0
HUT   41  63  36  73 /  30   5   0   0
EWK   43  62  40  73 /  30   5   0   0
EQA   44  63  41  73 /  30   5   0   0
WLD   46  65  41  74 /  30   5   0   0
RSL   39  60  38  73 /  40   5   0   0
GBD   39  61  40  73 /  40   5   0   0
SLN   40  61  41  74 /  40   5   0   0
MPR   41  62  40  73 /  40   5   0   0
CFV   52  64  40  72 /  60  10   0   0
CNU   52  63  39  71 /  60  10   0   0
K88   51  62  39  71 /  60  10   0   0

.ICT...WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT FOR ENTIRE CWA...ZONES KSZ032>033...
KSZ047>053...KSZ067>072...KSZ082>083...KSZ091>096...KSZ098>100.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-222247-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
146 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

THE TORNADO THAT AFFECTED BARTON COUNTY LAST EVENING TOUCHED DOWN
IN NORTHWEST HOISINGTON...ON THE EDGE OF THE CITY LIMITS. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS RATED THIS TORNADO F4 ON THE FUJITA
SCALE IN HOISINGTON. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST AFTER HITTING
HOISINGTON FOR 2.5 MILES AND WAS RAT=ED F2 AFTER LEAVING HOISINGTON.
THEN THE TORNADO TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE TOTAL PATH
LENGTH WAS 5 MILES AND THE PATH WIDTH WAS THREE-EIGHTHS OF A MILE.
JUST BEFORE LIFTING THE TORNADO CAUSED F0 TO F1 DAMAGE.

FINCH

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-220831-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
231 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 444.0 MHZ.

EMERGENCY TRAFFIC WILL BE ON 146.82 MHZ.

NNNN

KSZ032-047-222200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
405 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 171 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BOTH
RUSSELL AND BARTON COUNTIES...
...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 173 IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
KANSAS INCLUDING RUSSELL AND BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. FORECAST MOVEMENT OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 60 MPH.

IF YOU LIVE IN CENTRAL KANSAS...INCLUDING RUSSELL OR BARTON
COUNTY...BE ALERT WFOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE
LISTENING FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

ES