Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
410 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN.

THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION HAS CONFINED ALL THE CONVECTION TO THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.  AS THE
MESOSCALE UPDATE POINTED OUT...DRAMATIC COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KNOTS WILL HELP FEED THE
CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT TOWARDS MORNING.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING.  AS OF 1 AM...RUSSELL WAS 57 DEGREES AND GREAT BEND
WAS 82 DEGREES.  HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO PROGRESS VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT DRYER
AIR TO WORK IN WEST OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO THE
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  A LOOK AT THE MESO-ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 2000 TO 3000
J/KG OF CAPE.  HOWEVER...THEY THINK THE HIGH IS ONLY GOING TO BE IN
THE MID 70S BECAUSE OF INPUT FROM THE MODEL QPF.  THEREFORE...IF YOU
MODIFY THE SOUNDING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...YOU
GET CAPES OF OVER 4000 J/KG.  AS FOR THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...THERE
IS PLENTY OF SPEED SHEAR...BUT THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK
THAT IMPRESSIVE.  THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE SURFACE WINDS BACKING
THAT MUCH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOMETIMES THEY DON'T PICK UP ON THIS
REALLY GOOD.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
EVENING.  MUCH COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL WORK IN AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

FOR TOMORROW...THE ETA MODEL IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS KANSAS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE 700 MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SATURATE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z TOMORROW.  THE
SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE DRY LINE DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH 60 DEWPOINTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE
PROBLEM IS THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY SHALLOW AND FEEL
RIGHT NOW A DRY FORECAST IS THE WAY TO GO.  HOWEVER...WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO CAP...AFTERNOON SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THEREFORE...CURRENT TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S LOOKS GOOD.  BEFORE THAT
HAPPENS...THERE WILL BE SOME FLOW COMING OVER THE ROCKIES...SO CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THINK CHANCES ARE TOO
SMALL TO PUT IN THE FORECAST.

FCSTID = 8/FRANK
ICT   89  58  84  61 /  40  10   0   5
HUT   83  55  84  60 /  20   0   0   5
EWK   84  56  84  60 /  20   0   0   0
EQA   88  57  84  61 /  40  10   0   5
WLD   89  57  84  61 /  40  20   0   5
RSL   77  51  84  59 /   5   0   0   5
GBD   78  52  84  59 /   5   0   0   5
SLN   82  55  84  60 /  10   0   0   5
MPR   82  55  84  60 /  10   0   0   5
CFV   89  60  84  60 /  60  40   0   5
CNU   89  59  84  60 /  60  40   0   5
K88   88  59  84  60 /  60  40   0   5

.ICT ...NONE.

KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100-142230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

THE FOLLOWING IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         GREENWOOD           ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA
         WILSON              WOODSON             MONTGOMERY
         ALLEN               NEOSHO              LABETTE

SYNOPSIS:
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR RESIDES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE LOCAL STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON.

ES