Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2001

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WERE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THIS PACKAGE. MODELS INDICATE SHEARED SHORTWAVE PUSHES
INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY...WHILE WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE STARTS TO BRING BACK NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHERN KS
WHICH HELPS CREATE CAPES CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG TODAY AS SHOWN BY
MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STILL...WITH A LACK OF A FOCUSING
MECHANISM WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TODAY THINKING BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FOCUSED WELL TO OUR WEST.
AS FOR TEMPS...WE LOSE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WE HAD SATURDAY AND EXPECT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. SO ALTHOUGH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
INCREASE TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR SATURDAY/S VALUES.

MODELS AGREE BEST 850/700 MB WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION IN WESTERN KS
SHIFTS SOUTH INTO OK TONIGHT...SO FELL MCS WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL INCREASE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S/LOWER 60S.

MAIN SFC FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER ON MEMORIAL
DAY...AND WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SO
AGAIN...FOCUSING MECHANISM LACKING FOR PCPN CHANCES...BUT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNRESOLVED SHORTWAVE TO MIGRATE THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW
A SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN EXISTS...AND WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE BOARD MONDAY. TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET.

ETA SHOWS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDING THROUGH KS IN
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING 700MB
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT (MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES) MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE PCPN MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...FEEL BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/WAA IS
FORECAST TO BE.

WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST ECMWF/AVN FORECAST.  WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCE ON THE
TIMING...AVN AND ECMWF SHOW NICE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO
AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO SWEEP A FRONT THROUGH AND BRING COOLER TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY SO WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPS FOR THESE DAYS.

FCSTID = 12/HYSELL
ICT   82  61  81  62 /  10  40  20  30
HUT   82  60  81  61 /  10  40  20  30
EWK   82  61  81  62 /  10  40  20  30
EQA   82  61  81  62 /  10  40  20  30
WLD   82  61  81  62 /  10  40  20  30
RSL   81  60  80  62 /  10  40  20  30
GBD   81  60  80  62 /  10  40  20  30
SLN   82  61  80  62 /  10  40  20  30
MPR   82  61  80  62 /  10  40  20  30
CFV   82  60  80  62 /   0  30  20  30
CNU   82  60  80  62 /   0  30  20  30
K88   82  60  80  62 /   0  30  20  30

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-280500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1204 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2001

A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN:

CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RUSSELL            LINCOLN              SALINE
         BARTON             ELLSWORTH            MCPHERSON
         RICE

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RENO                KINGMAN             HARPER
         HARVEY              SEDGWICK            SUMNER
         BUTLER              COWLEY              MARION
         CHASE

SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         GREENWOOD           ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA
         WILSON              WOODSON             MONTGOMERY
         ALLEN               NEOSHO              LABETTE

THE SYNOPSIS:
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS KANSAS WAS PROVIDE THE INITIAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS MAY
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

/BAKER