Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
845 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

AS PER LAST TPC BULLETIN... THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF ALLISON IS
NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND 60 MILES SSW OF GALVESTON, BUT APPARENTLY
DRIFTING SLOWLY N AND LOSING A LITTLE STRENGTH AT 830 PM.  WILL HAVE
TO WAIT FOR NEXT TPC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.  ANYWAY, LATEST
POSITION  ALMOST AS EASY TO PIN DOWN BASED ON BUOY/SFC OBS VS.
RADAR, AS THERE IS ALMOST NO CONVECTION ACTUALLY AROUND THE STORM
CENTER.  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS STILL GIVEN BY TPC AS 60KT, BUT THESE
MAGNITUDES MUST BE VERY TIGHT TO ACTUAL CENTER... AS STRONGEST
OBSERVED WINDS ALONG UPPER COAST ARE JUST AT OR BELOW MINIMUM TS
STRENGTH.  MOST OF THE HEAVIER WEATHER IS WELL TO NORTH, EAST, AND
SOUTHEAST OF STORM CENTER. FOR MORE PARTICULARS...SEE LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE AND OUR HLSS.

WILL WAIT FOR NEXT TPC TO UPDATE ZONES, SO UPDATE WILL BE A LITTLE
AFTER 9 PM, BUT BIGGEST CHANGE WILL LIKELY TO BE TO DROP HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR INLAND COUNTIES WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AND RAISE
POPS FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS HEAVY RAIN AREA MOVES NORTH.  NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY TO BE HANDLING THE INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW WELL, BUT INDICATE A TREND OF THE SURFACE CENTER TO PROBABLY
MEANDER INLAND BY MIDNIGHT WITH A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY.  AT
ANY RATE, DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE WINDS WILL
REACH WARNING CRITERIA INLAND.

BIGGEST PROBLEM IN VERY SHORT TERM REMAINS TORRENTIAL RAINS.  HAVE
HAD IN EXCESS OF 10 OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS TODAY, MANY RECEIVING 6
OR MORE IN THE 6 HOURS ENDING AROUND 7 PM.  THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIP APPEARS TO BE CLOCKING AROUND NORTHERN AXIS OF MID LEVEL
(700MB) CIRCULATION WHICH IS WELL NORTH OF THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE T.S. CENTER.  HENCE WILL KEEP CURRENT CONFIG OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THE MOMENT. AS FOR WHAT FOLLOWS BEHIND ALLISON, PRESUMING
LANDFALL TONIGHT AND JUST DEALING WITH A PRECIP ENGINE OVER THE CWA,
STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP MAY CENTER NORTH AND EAST OF MID LEVEL
LOW.  ETA SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
DISTRIBUTION, IF NOT THE MAGNITUDE, OF THE PRECIP, AND SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MOST OF CWA, TAPERING OFF GRADUALLY
FROM SW IN 2ND AND 3RD PERIODS.

PLANNING NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED.

.KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU WED ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM
        NORMANGEE TO SWEENY.

        TROPICAL STORM WARNING SARGENT EWD.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 071/085 071/085 071 776
IAH TT 073/085 073/085 073 887
GLS TT 075/083 075/083 076 887