Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
812 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA.

PREV DISC...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON WERE CENTERED NEAR OR
OVER HOUSTON COUNTY AT THIS HOUR.  THE STORM HAS APPEARED TO BE
DRIFTING SOUTH...THEN WEST SINCE MIDNIGHT.  MODERATE RAINFALL AROUND
THE LOW CENTER WAS AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A BAND OF
SHOWERS WAS FURTHER SOUTH.  THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONCERNS
THE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.

WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE
SPECIFICS OF THE MOVEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW.  ALSO...THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN REFLECTING BOTH TROPICAL AND COLD CORE LOW CHARACTERISTICS.
CURRENTLY A CORE RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.  HOWEVER...CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...THE GENERAL
TREND DOES LOOK TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS BOTH THE ETA AND AVN
SUGGEST.  THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM WAS DRY SLOTTED VERY WELL
AND THERE APPEARED TO BE TWO MOISTURE AXES OVER THE GULF.  ONE WAS
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE OTHER FROM THE YUCATAN...BOTH
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO LA AND EVENTUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO
ALLISON.  WOULD EXPECT THAT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD THESE
AXES WILL MOVE OVER SE TX OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  GIVEN THE
HIGH PW/S AND THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS OUTSIDE THE LOW
CENTER...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS.  OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK IN ORDER FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD...LIKELY IN THE LATTER PERIODS.  WILL REISSUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY...MAINLY WHERE THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.

EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  TIDES SHOULD THUS RISE TO A FOOT OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.
SEAS AND WINDS WERE CURRENTLY CAUSING ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
GALVESTON BAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

PL-40
45

.KHGX...FFA EASTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
        SCA GALVESTON BAY.
        SCA 00 TO 20 HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT.
        SCA 20 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.
        SCEC MATAGORDA BAY.
        SCEC 00 TO 20 FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 086/072 086/071 088 866
IAH TT 085/073 085/073 087 766
GLS TT 085/075 084/075 084 665

TXZ163-164-176>179-198>200-210>214-226-227-237-238-071445-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
745 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

THE REMNANTS OF ALLISON STILL HAUNTING SOUTHEAST TEXAS

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NIGHT HAS LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WERE WIDESPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN FORT BEND
COUNTY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR TO HOUSTON...WITH A CORRIDOR OF 6
TO 10 INCHES FROM RICHMOND TO MISSION BEND TO STAFFORD AND MISSOURI
CITY. IN LIBERTY COUNTY RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 12 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST MADISON...HOUSTON...NORTHERN WALKER...AND WESTERN TRINITY
COUNTIES.

A SUMMARY OF RAINFALL REPORTS AS OF 730 AM FOLLOWS.
IN SUGARLAND             10.83 INCHES (NEAR ELDRIDGE AND HIGHWAY 90)
RATCLIFF                  7.10
SUGARLAND AIRPORT         7.85
PENNINGTON                6.65
ARBOR                     5.58
GRAPELAND                 5.30
WESTBURY                  5.00
CROCKETT                  4.97
HIRAM-CLARK AT SIMS BAYOU 4.53
EAST MISSOURI CITY        4.50
WECHES                    4.31
LOVELADY                  3.48
RICHMOND                  3.25
GESSNER AT BRAYS BAYOU    3.07

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS...UPDATES...AND WARNINGS.