Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON WERE CENTERED NEAR OR
OVER HOUSTON COUNTY AT THIS HOUR.  THE STORM HAS APPEARED TO BE
DRIFTING SOUTH...THEN WEST SINCE MIDNIGHT.  MODERATE RAINFALL AROUND
THE LOW CENTER WAS AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A BAND OF
SHOWERS WAS FURTHER SOUTH.  THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONCERNS
THE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.

WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE
SPECIFICS OF THE MOVEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW.  ALSO...THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN REFLECTING BOTH TROPICAL AND COLD CORE LOW CHARACTERISTICS.
CURRENTLY A CORE RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.  HOWEVER...CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...THE GENERAL
TREND DOES LOOK TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS BOTH THE ETA AND AVN
SUGGEST.  THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM WAS DRY SLOTTED VERY WELL
AND THERE APPEARED TO BE TWO MOISTURE AXES OVER THE GULF.  ONE WAS
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE OTHER FROM THE YUCATAN...BOTH
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO LA AND EVENTUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO
ALLISON.  WOULD EXPECT THAT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD THESE
AXES WILL MOVE OVER SE TX OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  GIVEN THE
HIGH PW/S AND THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS OUTSIDE THE LOW
CENTER...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS.  OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK IN ORDER FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD...LIKELY IN THE LATTER PERIODS.  WILL REISSUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY...MAINLY WHERE THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.

EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  TIDES SHOULD THUS RISE TO A FOOT OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.
SEAS AND WINDS WERE CURRENTLY CAUSING ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
GALVESTON BAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

PL-40
45

.KHGX...FFA EASTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
        SCA GALVESTON BAY.
        SCA 00 TO 20 HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT.
        SCA 20 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.
        SCEC MATAGORDA BAY.
        SCEC 00 TO 20 FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 086/072 086/071 088 866
IAH TT 085/073 085/073 087 766
GLS TT 085/075 084/075 084 665