Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2001

12Z HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED A 40 KT JET ON THE W SIDE OF H5 UPPER LOW.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE...THE LOW SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING TO
THIS JET WITH A RATHER QUICK WESTWARD PROPAGATION THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW ATTM SEEMS TO BE OVER EXTREME ERN TN.

AS A RESULT...WE ARE NOW IN A DEEP SLY FLOW...EXCEPT AT THE SFC
WHERE WNDS ARE NE. THIS IS A PERFECT ANCHORING FLOW. ATTM THERE ARE
ALREADY SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER NE GA THAT HAVE NOT MOVED AND MORE
CONVECTION IN ANDERSON COUNTY SLOWLY WORKING TOWARD THE MTNS.
FORTUNATELY...THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

ALSO...CHS SOUNDING HAD A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AOB 700 MB. AS THIS
SPREADS IN...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WL INCREASE
AS THE AFTN WEARS ON. WL KEEP FFA FOR THE ERN ZONES THROUGH
NOON...NO POINT IN CANCELING A WATCH ANY SOONER THAN NEED BE.
HOWEVER...WL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

OTRW...TEMPS AND POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE AFTN. WL BUMP UP
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE ERN ZONES WHERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUN ATTM.

FCSTID = 14
GSP   79  66  83  66 /  70  50  40  30
AND   80  65  85  65 /  70  60  50  40
CLT   78  65  82  65 /  70  50  40  30
HKY   75  62  80  62 /  70  60  50  40
AVL   72  60  75  60 /  70  70  60  50

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MORNING FOR ZONES
NCZ035>037...NCZ056>057...NCZ068>072...NCZ082.

SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MORNING FOR ZONES
SCZ007>009...SCZ013>014.

MCAVOY

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-252100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2001

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LAST NIGHT...THIS SAME LOW BROUGHT AS
MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
HEATS UP THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. IN FACT...STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MAY NOT MOVE AT AT ALL.

THUS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AS THE AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MOST
LIKELY HAVE NOT SEEN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN DOES DEVELOP...WATCHES MAY BE NEED FOR PARTS
OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...COLD AND RATHER DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
1155 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1144 AM    CLAYTON                   GA   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/25/01   RABUN                          CLAYTON 911 CENTER
                                          REPORTED HAIL NOW ENDED
                                          BUT DIME TO GOLFBALL SIZE
                                          JUST PRIOR AT 1140 AM.

TJB