Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2001

KGSP 88-D SHOWS SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING IN THE
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AS COLD POOL PRECEDING UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTHWARD. SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA. LAST
RUC RUN SUGGESTS A VORT ASSOCIATED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...SO IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF ON AND
OFF CONVECTION CONTINUED MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS STILL INSIST THAT UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF...GIVING A
GLANCING BLOW TO OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES BEFORE RETROGRADING INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BOTH ETA/AVN SHIFT MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AND
LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES MONDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERING TO UPSLOPE DIRECTION AFTER A PROLONGED NORTHEAST
FLOW HAS DOMINATED ALL BUT MOUNTAINS. TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING STEADILY DURING THE DAY. WILL GIVE EVERYONE A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH RATHER STRONG 85H FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KTS SUGGESTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND UPPER LOW CONTINUING A PUSH TO THE WEST...BUT OUR CWFA
STILL ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY REMAINS IN OUR WESTERN MOST
ZONES...WHILE EASTERN ZONES COME MORE AND MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY IN THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
MAXIMA DUE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON TIME SECTIONS.

DRY TUESDAY NITE...THEN MOSTLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY IN MORE OF A SUMMERTIME PATTERN. NEW
AVN CONTINUES MRF TREND OF DELAYING NEXT FROPA TIL END OF WEEKEND.

FCSTID = 44
GSP   62  80  63  82 /  30  40  50  40
AND   63  81  63  83 /  30  40  50  40
CLT   64  78  64  81 /  30  40  50  30
HKY   60  76  62  76 /  30  40  50  30
AVL   57  72  58  75 /  30  40  50  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
926 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

855 PM     6 NE GAFFNEY              SC   WIND DAMAGE
06/24/01   CHEROKEE                       FEW TREES REPORTED DOWN
                                          BY EMERGENCY MANAGER...
                                          ALSO MARBLE SIZE HAIL
                                          REPORTED.

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