Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WITH THE AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE ARE THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION END TONIGHT AND POST-FRONTAL WIND FIELD.

GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOW LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTION
OF THE GRB CWA. THE ENTIRE LINE IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH SOME MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...BUT DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHING...
 EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA...BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

BOTH ETA AND AVN MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING...CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONS. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG IN MOST WESTERN ZONES WHERE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE ON MONDAY.

USED BLEND OF AVN AND NGM GUIDANCE...ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FROM MORNING ZONE PACKAGE.

.GRB...NONE.

AUSTIN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-121900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW
OF THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD ALLOW A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
STRONG STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM...AND
WILL MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO OCONTO TO
STURGEON BAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

WEATHER UPDATES CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

AUSTIN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-121900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW
OF THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD ALLOW A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
STRONG STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM...AND
WILL MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO OCONTO TO
STURGEON BAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

WEATHER UPDATES CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

AUSTIN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
205 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0115 PM    5 NW ARBOR VITAE          WI   WIND DAMAGE
08/12/01   VILAS                          POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.
                                          REPORT FROM LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0120 PM    MINOCQUA                  WI   WIND DAMAGE
08/12/01   ONEIDA                         TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
                                          THROUGHOUT THE
                                          MINOCQUA/WOODRUFF AREA.
                                          REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

RS/JKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0110 PM    LAC DU FLAMBEAU           WI   WIND DAMAGE
08/12/01   VILAS                          TREES SNAPPED IN HALF.
                                          POWER LINES DOWN.  REPORT
                                          FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT.

0123 PM    ARBOR VITAE               WI   WIND DAMAGE
08/12/01   VILAS                          TREES SNAPPED IN HALF.
                                          POWER LINES DOWN.  REPORT
                                          FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT.

RS/JKL