Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...WITH A RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EAST...WL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS FCST CYCLE.
LATEST RUNS OF THE MED RANGE MODELS WERE BEGINNING TO SHOW UPR RIDGE
PROGRESSING EWD NEXT WEEKEND.

STG UPR SYSTEM ROTG THROUGH MEAN TROF WL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SWD ACRS MY
FCST AREA TDA. EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD...WITH OTHER SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
E-C MN AHEAD OF VORT HEADING EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS. VORT WL LIKELY MV
ACRS MY FCST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SCT ELEVATED TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE
AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. BETTER CHC OF TSTMS WL BE THIS AFTN/EVE AS COLD
FRONT DROPS SE ACRS THE AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS FOR GRB OFF THE ETA AND NGM
BOTH SHOWED AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE BY LATE AFTN. WINDS ABV THE TOP OF
THE INVERTED-V WERE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO...
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...DON/T EXPECT
ANYTHING TOO STG. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND FREEZING LEVEL ARE RATHER
LOW...SO THERE WL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

QUITE WX WL RETURN LATER TNGT ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
WX MON/MON NGT/TUE AS CANADIAN HIGH CROSSES THE RGN.

NEXT CHC OF PCPN WL COME MID-WK AS NEXT SIG SHRTWV DIGS SE INTO THE MEAN
TROF. THAT SHRTWV SHOULD DIG FARTHER S AND W THAN PREVIOUS SHRTWVS...
WHICH WL RESULT IN MORE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE NRN PLAINS AND A BETTER
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE. THE GENERAL IDEA PRESENTED BY THE MED RANGE
MODELS WAS TO HV THE SHRTWV SHEAR APART...WITH STRONG NRN PART OF THE
SYSTEM HEADING EWD ACRS SRN CAN...WHILE POSITIVELY TILTED SRN PART OF
THE TROF SLOWLY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES RGN. SRN PORTION OF THE TROF
WOULD CAUSE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE RGN TO SLOW DOWN. COMBINED WITH THE
BETTER RETURN OF MOISTURE...THIS SHOULD INCR THE CHC OF SIG PCPN ACRS MY
FCST AREA. PREV FCST ALREADY HAD PCPN WED-THU...AND THAT SEEMED RIGHT ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL FRONT WL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRI NGT...
USHERING IN ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.
THEN...PROVIDING THE UPR RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT EWD NEXT WEEKEND AS SHOWN
BY THE MED RANGE MODELS...TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AOA NORMAL BY THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

.GRB...NONE.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-121900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW
OF THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD ALLOW A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
STRONG STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM...AND
WILL MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO OCONTO TO
STURGEON BAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

WEATHER UPDATES CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

AUSTIN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-121900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW
OF THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD ALLOW A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
STRONG STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM...AND
WILL MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO OCONTO TO
STURGEON BAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

WEATHER UPDATES CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

AUSTIN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB