Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SVR WX THREAT DURING THIS FCST CYCLE. MEAN UPPER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED...WITH TROF NOW OVER THE WEST AND A RIDGE IN THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN WL PERSISTS FOR MOST OF THE WK.

STRENGTHENING SVR MCS ACRS MN SHOULD MV E INTO WI DURING THE LATE
AFTN...AND THEN SE ACRS THE STATE THIS EVE. EXPECT MAINLY A WIND EVENT
BY THE TIME IT REACHES MY FCST AREA. GREATEST RISK STILL APPEARS TO BE
IN C WI.

THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD SHIFT SE OF MY FCST AREA BY LATE TNGT. SOME
FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT. FRONT WL GET SHOVED SWD TNGT...THEN
START BACK N TOMORROW. WITH FRONT S OF MY FCST AREA TOMORROW...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. KEPT CHC POPS FOR TOMORROW AS FRONT HEADS BACK
ACRS THE AREA.

MCS DEVELOPING IN 850 MB ISENT LIFT ZONE N OF THE SFC FRONT WL LIKELY
AFFECT THE NRN PART OF MY FCST AREA TOMORROW NGT. MAIN DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR N OF SFC FRONT...BUT KEPT CHC POPS ACRS THE S CLOSE TO THE
SFC FRONT. MCS MAY STILL LINGER ACRS THE N EARLY WED. OTHERWISE...WL
BANK ON MY FCST AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR. WENT WITH TEMPS ABV
GUID...AND KEPT MENTION OF PCPN OUT OF THE FCST UNTIL COLD FRONT HEADS
EWD THU.

MED RANGE MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA.
DIFFERENCES SEEM TO STEM FROM JUST HOW MUCH THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES.
OVERALL...EXPECT MY FCST AREA TO REMAIN NR THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAP AND
THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AOA NORMAL...
WITH A CONT CHC OF TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE XTD PART OF THE FCST.

COORD W MKE AND MQT.

.GRB...NONE.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB
4

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-112000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
MERRILL TO OSHKOSH...AND OCCUR BETWEEN 5:00 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMPLEX WILL PUSH EAST INTO
WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THE COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. AS OF NOON...IT APPEARED THAT CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAD THE
GREATEST RISK OF EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

WEATHER UPDATES CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-112300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MERRILL TO OSHKOSH...AND
OCCUR BETWEEN 7:00 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM MINNESOTA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE COMPLEX SHOULD TURN SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY THE COMPLEX WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS OF 4:00
PM...IT APPEARED THAT CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAD THE GREATEST RISK OF
EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

WEATHER UPDATES CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-120000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
605 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MERRILL TO OSHKOSH...AND
OCCUR BETWEEN 7:00 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

AT 6:00 PM...A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMPLEX SHOULD TURN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY
THE COMPLEX WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB