Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 AM MDT TUE MAY 29 2001

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTH WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
ARE A SECONDARY CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION.

THERE IS NO CLEARLY PREFERRED MODEL SINCE EACH HAS A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS
EVENING. THE NGM HAS A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE ETA IS THE
DEEPEST. THE AVN IS THE SLOWER MODEL WITH THE ETA BEING THE FASTEST.
OVERALL...A STRONGER AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF FEATURES IS
PREFERRED...AS HAS BEEN THE OVERALL TREND OF THE MODELS SINCE
YESTERDAYS RUN.  WILL MIX AND MATCH GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO FAVOR A
SLOWER AND DEEPER UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY MID WEEK.

MODELS KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WILL KEEP
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BECOMING SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SLIGHTLY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN WARM UP AGAIN THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY AND BEGINS TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A S/WV EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA...FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND MRF IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.GLD...NONE.

LOCKHART

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-300600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1050 AM MDT TUE MAY 29 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF A YUMA COLORADO / GOODLAND KANSAS / QUINTER KANSAS LINE.

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS...AND WITH THE RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS...SOME
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL REPORTS IN EXCESS OF THREE
INCHES OR OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WILL BE
APPRECIATED.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND
WIND SPEEDS UP TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF A YUMA
COLORADO / GOODLAND KANSAS / HILL CITY KANSAS LINE BY MIDDLE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY -OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IN THIS AREA...HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

BARKER