Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2001

POPS EARLY AND TEMPS AFTERWARD PRESENT THE GREATEST CHALLENGE.

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE OBS SUGGEST RIDGE JUST WEST OF FA ABOUT TO
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN AS SPLIT FLOW INTENSIFIES ALONG WEST COAST AND
MOVES INLAND.  WITH SUCH A SCENARIO PREFER THE MORE AMPLIFIED ETA
SOLUTION OVER AVN FOR THIS PACKAGE.

TONIGHT...WILL PRECIP DEVELOP OVER FA WITH PROGGED MCS TO THE
SOUTH?  PROBABLY.  MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM JET...BUT
INITIATION AREA ALSO WILL BE COMING UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET.  WITH WEAKER MCS IN
PANHANDLES OF OK AND TX...FA COULD GET SECOND CLUSTER.  PARALLEL ETA
AND 10 KM REGIONAL ETA SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO AND ETA-KF
DEVELOPS A NORTH TO SOUTH LINEAR SYSTEM MOVING INTO FA WITH LITTLE
PRECIP IN OK/TX PANHANDLES.  WILL CARRY 80 POPS CENTRAL AND WEST
WITH 60 IN THE EAST AS IM NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST SYSTEM WILL GO.

TUESDAY COULD BE A REPEAT OF SUNDAYS EVENT WITH MORE TWIST.
SCENARIO LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE LANDSPOUT EVENT...PER ICT SOO
INFORMAL WRITE UP.  PROGS IMPLY DECENT COLD POOL PRODUCTION WITH
MCS SURGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  TSRA COULD GET EARLY START AND BE
MOSTLY OUT OF FA BY 00Z...SO WILL NOT MESS TOO MUCH WITH GUIDANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FA UNDER APPROACHING RIDGE WITH JET A
LITTLE TOO FAR NORTHEAST FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FORCING...SO
WILL USE DRY WORDING. SATURDAY HAS RIDGE WEAKENING AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD.  WILL PLACE POPS IN WESTERN ZONES AND LEAVE REST
DRY. SUNDAY WE COULD GET A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...SO WILL MENTION POPS EVERYWHERE.  TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
IN WESTERN CONUS MONDAY WITH HEIGHTS RISING OVER PLAINS...AND I
WOULD EXPECT ANY TSRA TO STAY NEAR THE FRONT RANGE IN THIS CASE.

.GLD...NONE.

ENTWISTLE

COZ091-092-290800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
958 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 2 AM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO. THE COUNTIES
INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. IF OUTSIDE...MOVE
TO SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING. ALSO...REMEMBER
THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

RJC