Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
255 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2001

PRIMARY CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND COLD INTRUSION IN WAKE OF
UPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

STAGE APPEARS SET FOR MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS KANSAS THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE PLACES UPPER
LOW OVER ARIZONA WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SENDING IT
TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING.  LESS SIDE SURFACE LOW AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PUSH FRONT NORTH
TO NEAR THE KS/NE LINE BY DAWN. H85 JET, DYNAMIC LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW, CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS GID CWFA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.  HIGH MOS POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE.

EXIT OF UPPER SYSTEM LEAVES GID CWFA IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN ITS
WAKE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  PREFER ETA/MESOETA SOLUTION ON STRENGTH OF
COLD AIR.  NGM AND AVN HAVE TRADITIONALLY BEEN TOO WEAK WITH
SIMILAR COLD AIR OUTBREAKS.  WILL SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MOS
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IN DEFORMATION
ZONE WEST OF UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
ETA AGAIN THE PREFERRED MODEL.  COLD ADVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD
CLOUDS WELL INTO MONDAY.

BENIGN PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGING TO SET IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
COMING WEEK PER MRF.

.GID...NONE

SCHURR

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-220200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
427 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...AND IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS THIS EVENING.
AS THIS FRONT PRESSES TO THE NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 9 PM...AND IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BESIDES INCREASING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...A LARGE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. FURTHERMORE...
THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO SUNDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...UNTIL THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
520 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0810 PM    GUIDE ROCK                NE    WIND DAMAGE
04/20/01   WEBSTER                         TREE BLOWN OVER

0815 PM    JEWELL                    KS    WIND DAMAGE
04/20/01   JEWELL                          SEVERAL ROOFS
                                           BLOWN OFF AND
                                           NUMBEROUS TREES
                                           BLOWN DOWN