Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
305 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

OBVIOUS CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION TODAY WITH SNOW CHANCES IN COLDER
AIR FOR TONIGHT.

SCATTERED CONVECTION ON GOING IN CWFA AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURS OVER SFC BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR I 70.  NOT TOO WELL ORGANIZED
AT THIS TIME THOUGH BUT WILL NEED MORNING WORDING AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN EARNEST. BEST 850MB THETA E
ADVECTION FOCUSES ACROSS NW CWFA THIS MORNING AND THIS IS VERIFIED
BY INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.  COULD BE SOME MARGINAL HAIL BUT
CERTAINLY AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BE LIFTING OUT AS 100 PLUS
KNOT JET ROUNDS THE BASE DURING PREDAWN HOURS.  THE SURFACE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO FURTHER BACKING AND
INCREASING OF UPPER FLOW...CREATING UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.  SOUTHERLY
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTHEAST CWFA BY
AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...A DRY PUNCH WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT AS PER SWODY1.
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE COMMON AS
THIS LINE RACES ACROSS THE CWFA.  WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY DUE TO
FORECAST CONVECTION AND DEAL WITH WINDS IN SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO COLDER AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT.  MODEL TEMP
PROGS HAVE CONVERGED...SO WILL GO WITH THEIR SOLUTION.  THIS BRINGS
AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
TONIGHT...ENDING IN NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING.  ETA SNOW ACCUMULATOR
SHOWS ABOUT 2 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.  WHILE IT
IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW COULD COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DOWN ENOUGH TO MAKE SOME STICK ON GRASSY SURFACES...IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE HEAVIER PCPN MOVES OUT BEFORE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN.  THEREFORE WILL JUST GO WITH A POSSIBLE MIX.  BLYR TEMPERATURES
FIGURE TO STAY HIGH ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN IN SOUTHEAST.

TEMP GRADIENT WILL BE A BIG CHALLENGE TODAY FOR ZONE WORDING. AT
LEAST ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...SO WILL STAY IN THAT
REALM.  ON MONDAY...AM SKEPTICAL OF RAPID RECOVERY OF TEMPS OVER WET
GROUND SO WILL STAY ON LOW END OF GUIDANCE.  FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS CURRENTLY FORECAST AS IT APPEARS
THAT WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDN8IGHT.  WILL
UP TEMPS A BIT THEN.

LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.GID...NONE

DROZD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
747 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 AM    2 S RIVERDALE             NE    .75 INCH HAIL
04/22/01   BUFFALO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1009 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 AM    KEARNEY                   NE    60 MPH TSTM GUST
04/22/01   BUFFALO                         MINOR TREE
                                           DAMAGE...POWER LINES
                                           DOWNED FROM TREES

0850 AM    GRAND IS                  NE    WIND DAMAGE
04/22/01   HALL                            ISOLATED DEBRIS IN WEST
                                           GRAND ISLAND. STREET
                                           LIGHT KNOCKED DNOWN.
                                           SHOPPING MALL SIGN
                                           BROKEN IN HALF.

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-222100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1120 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

A WARM FRONT FROM OMAHA TO MCCOOK IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH
AT A SLOW RATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. AN
INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER COLORADO WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE
FRONT AND INCREASE THE THREAT.

A DRY LINE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  IT WILL LIKELY TEAM WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM TO SPAWN A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT INTO KANSAS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
LINE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END AROUND SUNSETZ.

SCHURR