Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
313 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TODAY...

AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...H85 AND SFC ANALYSES FEATURED MOISTURE
POOLING OVER SRN PLAINS IN OK ALONG WHATS LEFT OF BOUNDARY. BUILDING
RIDGE ANALYZED OVER SW CONUS WILL BE DOMINANT IN THE NEAR
TERM...WITH PCPN CHANCES HINGING ON SUBTLE WAVES IN QUASI NW FLOW.

AT 06Z SHORT-LIVED SHRA ACTIVITY IN NRN CWA WAS KICKED OFF BY FIRST
SUCH WAVE. VORT ENERGY ENHANCED BY JET SUPPORT IS KICKING OUT OF NRN
ROCKIES IN ERN WY PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND H5 UAA WILL STEER S/W
THROUGH WRN NEB THIS MORNING AND INTO THE N CENTRAL LATER WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN
NRN CWFA TDA.

AS WAVE APPROACHES TODAY TEMPS WILL BE NEXT CONCERN WITH DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER KEY FACTOR. MODELS SEEM TO BE OVER DOING CLOUDS AS THEY
DID WITH OVERNIGHT PCPN.  WITH THIS IN MIND...MX VALUES APPROACHING
MID 80S STILL SEEM ON TRACK CONSIDERING NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TRENDS.

VORT PROGGED TO MOVE SE TONIGHT WITH RESULTING INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO WARRANT
POPS. THIS MAY IMPACT LOWS BY KEEPING UP BY JUST A COUPLE DEGREES.

WAVE WILL SCOOT EAST ON MON ALLOWING RIDGE TO EXPAND. INCREASED
H5-10 THICKNESS AND SUFFICIENT MIXING WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT WARMING
AND GRADUAL RETURN OF LL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VORT ENERGY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT WEAK SFC TROF WILL BE TO NW WITH DECENT TIGHTENING
SETTING UP HERE.  TRENDS SHOW ETA TO BE HANDLING PATTERN BEST AS AVN
HAS SEVERELY OVERDONE PCP AND COOL TEMPS LATELY. ALSO SKEPTICAL OF
LINGERING PCPN FOR TUES SO WILL LEAVE DRY BUT KEEP EYE ON NEXT RUN.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE UPR LVL ENERGY
WILL RIDE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE HOLD
BEHIND WAVE ON TUES WITH NEXT MAJOR TROUGH RESLULTING FROM CANADIAN
AIRMASS BACKING INTO REGION. STRONG H5 WAVE PROGGED BY ALL SOLUTIONS
WILL BE IN VCNTY WED WITH FAIR SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN...BUT LOOKS
TO GET OUT OF HERE A BIT QUICKER AND WILL TAKE OUT POPS FOR THURS.

.GID...NONE.

33

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-122100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE BRIEF...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL EXIST GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

GURNEY