Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
200 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2001

SHORT TERM...TSRA BUILDING OVER SW MT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. A FEW CELLS HAVE
FIRED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWFA. SO FAR NO BUILD UPS YET IN THE
GGW CWFA. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S OVER THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWFA...AND IN
THE 60S IN THE NE HALF...KSDY WITH A DEW POINT AROUND 70.

VIS SAT/H2O VAP SHOW A RATHER STRONG VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL ID MOVING
NE THROUGH THE FLOW. TEMPS WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN
NC MT THIS EARLY PM ALREADY. AS THE TSRA FROM THE SW INTERACT WITH
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA...THEY SHOULD FIRE UP
PRETTY GOOD OVER THE CWFA. THE ETA (MODEL OF CHOICE) HAS TWO AREAS
OF POSITIVE OMEGA THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION...ONE OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND ONE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE ALL THERE WITH THE SW FLOW...THEREFORE
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND HIGH SCATTERED POPS
IN THE EAST.

MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR
MORE PM TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT THE H5 LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND
ALLOWS FOR MORE COOLER AIR TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE AND SHOULD START TO EFFECT THE CWFA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER SW
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEREFORE SCT TYPE POPS LOOK
GOOD ALL THE WAY THROUGH.

FOR TEMPS...LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE FWC NUMBERS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIODS.   PROTON

EXTENDED...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE MIDWEST
STATES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. FLOW ALOFT THEN TURNS
ZONAL ON FRIDAY FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AS THIS LOW DIGS OVER THE WEEKEND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES LOWER...THEN SLOWLY WARM BY THE WEEKEND.  WATERHOUSE

KGGW 062/085 062/082 058/080 056/078 056/081 058/083 059/085
     BBTTBBB  946233/9933222
KGDV 065/088 064/084 060/082 057/079 056/080 057/082 058/084
     BBTTBBB  945233/9933222

.GGW...SVR T%STM WATCH TIL 8 PM ZONES 021-022.