Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

AVIATION DISCUSSION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND EVENTUAL CROSS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE WILL GREATLY HAMPER AIRPORT OPERATIONS
AFTER 15Z. ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z WITH
THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY FORMING A LINE BETWEEN ABI AND SPS AFTER
DAYBREAK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REACH A SHERMAN-DFW-BROWNWOOD LINE
BETWEEN 15-17Z AND MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z WITH VFR NO CIG THEREAFTER. WILL MENTION
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND WILL LIKELY ISSUE AIRPORT ADVISORY FOR WIND
WITH OR WITHOUT CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.   ...48...

PUBLIC DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY.  FOR SHORT TERM...HIGH DEWPOINTS SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF DRY LINE IN FAR WEST TEXAS.
BEST 850 WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WEST OF AREA WHERE STRONGER 500 WIND FIELD EXISTS
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  BY THE TIME 500 JET MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS...850 WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WITH BEST
SHEAR EAST OF AREA...AND WINDS UNIDIRECTIONAL ACROSS THE REGION.
UNLESS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE A SQUALL
LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLY MORNING INTO WESTERN ZONES...CENTRAL ZONES BY MID MORNING...AND
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  WILL BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
OKLAHOMA...NO BOUNDARY FOR ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME.  THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...ALTHOUGH GROUND OVER MOST OF NORTH TEXAS IS SATURATED.
BELIEVE STREET FLOODING AND PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE THE
MAIN PROBLEM.  STRONG 850 WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO SURFACE...RESULTING
IN STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AFTER STORMS PASS...SO WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 15
TO 25 TONIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION.

DFW 73/45/68/46 7000
ACT 76/47/69/48 6000

.FTW...WIND ADVISORY AREAWIDE TODAY THROUGH 600 PM.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  DURING THE NIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVED NORTH
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SPREADING WARM MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.  A DRY LINE
CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK TO MIDLAND WILL MOVE
EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY LINE.  THE MAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A STRONG WIND FIELD AT THE MID LEVELS WILL
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AFTER SUNRISE.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE WIND
SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.  THEREFORE...AFTER SUNRISE
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER THE STORMS PASS BY.  A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FOR SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.  THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.  ALTHOUGH
THE GROUND IS SATURATED ACROSS THE REGION...THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL
BE STREET FLOODING AND PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS.  THE STORMS WILL
BE FAST MOVING...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

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