Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2001

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN OR TSRA WILL BE THE RULE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ATTM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT OF
TSRA WILL BE AFTER 6Z.  PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING SATURDAY AM...
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WIND
COULD BECOME GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL ALSO BE GUSTY DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. 81

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND JUST AHEAD OF NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT.  EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD PUSH AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WEAK TO MODERATE
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES.  STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT
PUSH EASTWARD.  DONT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO REACH THE WESTERN ZONES UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING
THE METROPLEX...AROUND DAYBREAK AND EAST TEXAS BY MID MORNING. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...BUT DONT ANTICIPATED A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. COULD STILL
SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO
SATURATED SOILS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH
ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD.  6 PM TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MANY
AREAS.  TEMPS DONT APPEAR TO COOL MUCH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

DFW 56/67/41/67 +300   ACT 60/70/42/70 +300

LOOKING TOWARD NEXT WEEK...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON MONDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK DRY AND MILD.

.FTW...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT IN ALL ZONES.

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TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A LINE
FROM BOWIE TO KILLEEN SATURDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS.  THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AT DAYBREAK...AND SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN AREAS BEFORE
MIDDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 1 AND 6 AM...AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 5 AND 10 AM.

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO TWO INCHES BY SATURDAY
MIDDAY.  THIS COULD LEAD TO QUICK RUNOFF AND BRIEF FLOODING OF MINOR
STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS.  THE WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD AGGRAVATE SWOLLEN RIVER SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE TRINITY.

...WINDY CONDITIONS...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...
AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOST OF NIGHT.  AFTER THE
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY MORNING...THE WIND WILL TURN
WESTERLY AND INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE WIND WILL REMAIN
STRONG INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
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