Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2001

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 5, 2001Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 5, 2001, 2:13 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2001, 2:13 PM MST (21:13 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2001, 3:00 PM MST
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 393 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -153 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1839 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 77 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KFGZ 052116
SVRFLG

AZC025-052200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
213 PM MST THU JUL 5 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 300 PM MST

* AT 213 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF RIMROCK...OR ABOUT 16 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF CAMP VERDE...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE TO...
  2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RIMROCK...3 MILES EAST OF LAKE MONTEZUMA AT
  300 PM MST

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS WASHES AND CREEKS.
AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE
WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...
THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3464 11181 3457 11175 3462 11155 3477 11160

MAS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 5, 9:00 AM MST, 5 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 9:00 AM MST, 5 hours 13 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST THU JUL 05 2001

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING. MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. FOR TODAY MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES ARE LOCATED. THIS
INCLUDES THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...YAVAPAI COUNTY...THE COCONINO
PLATEAU...GRAND CANYON COUNTRY AND THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL SEE JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FEED IN FROM NEW MEXICO. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A WEAK TROUGH
(CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST) WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE A DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA ARE IN THE 1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE TODAY AND
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING THUNDERSTOR|MS THIS SEASON. OTHERWISE...WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

MCCOLLUM

.FGZ...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 5, 9:28 AM MST, 4 hours 45 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-051930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST THU JUL 05 2001

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...GRAND CANYON COUNTRY
AND WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH THESE STORMS
INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES BY
MID AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO DEEPER MOISTURE A FEW WILL
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 8:34 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	41 min
Jul 4, 9:18 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	27 min
Jul 5, 11:50 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	35 min
Jul 5, 12:52 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	43 min
Jul 5, 1:34 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	41 min
Jul 5, 1:58 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	2 hr
Jul 5, 3:08 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila	52 min
Jul 5, 4:06 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila	39 min
Jul 5, 4:32 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2001 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2001

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.