Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2001

Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 5, 2001Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 5, 2001, 1:58 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.

The facts

Issued
Jul 5, 2001, 1:58 PM MST (20:58 UTC)
Expired
Jul 5, 2001, 4:00 PM MST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2001-07-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 393 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2001-07-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -15 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
393 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-153 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1839 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
77 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 052102
FFWFGZ
AZC025-060000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
158 PM MST THU JUL 5 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 500 PM MST

* AT 158 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN 10 MILES EAST OF RIMROCK...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMP
  VERDE...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE
TO...
  OVER RIMROCK AT 315 PM MST
  OVER LAKE MONTEZUMA AT 330 PM MST
  OVER MCGUIREVILLE AT 350 PM MST

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO
TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN WET BEAVER CREEK FROM THE YAVAPAI
COUNTY LINE TO THE WET BEAVER RANGER STATION.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3463 11183 3458 11181 3467 11154 3479 11161

MAS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 5, 9:00 AM MST, 4 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 9:00 AM MST, 4 hours 58 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST THU JUL 05 2001

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING. MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. FOR TODAY MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES ARE LOCATED. THIS
INCLUDES THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...YAVAPAI COUNTY...THE COCONINO
PLATEAU...GRAND CANYON COUNTRY AND THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL SEE JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FEED IN FROM NEW MEXICO. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A WEAK TROUGH
(CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST) WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE A DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA ARE IN THE 1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE TODAY AND
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING THUNDERSTOR|MS THIS SEASON. OTHERWISE...WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

MCCOLLUM

.FGZ...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 5, 9:28 AM MST, 4 hours 30 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-051930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST THU JUL 05 2001

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...GRAND CANYON COUNTRY
AND WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH THESE STORMS
INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES BY
MID AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO DEEPER MOISTURE A FEW WILL
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 4, 8:34 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino41 min
Jul 4, 9:18 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai27 min
Jul 5, 11:50 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino35 min
Jul 5, 12:52 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai43 min
Jul 5, 1:34 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai41 min
Jul 5, 2:13 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai47 min
Jul 5, 3:08 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZGila52 min
Jul 5, 4:06 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZGila39 min
Jul 5, 4:32 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai43 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2001Every flash flood warning in 2001

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.