Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2001

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 4, 2001Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 4, 2001, 4:06 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2001, 4:06 PM MST (23:06 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2001, 5:00 PM MST
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

County Yavapai County, AZ

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 4, 3:30 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 122 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -219 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1981 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KFGZ 042309
SVRFLG

AZC025-050000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
406 PM MST WED JUL 4 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY IN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 500 PM MST

* AT 406 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWEST YAVAPAI COUNTY JUST WEST OF   
  THE JUNIPER MOUNTAINS ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS OF GREATER THAN 55 MPH ARE LIKELY FROM 
THIS STORM ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TAKE COVER UNTIL THE STORM 
PASSES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3496 11332 3475 11328 3469 11289 3494 11267
          3533 11332

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 4, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 36 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST WED JUL 04 2001

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UTAH/COLORADO
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE
RIDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA.
EXPECT A GENERAL UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS TO A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON THURSDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING ON FRIDAY
WILL GO WITH A GENERAL PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL TRENDS IN CLOUDINESS OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LOWER SOME ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS. FRIDAY COULD GET INTERESTING NEAR THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH
DEEP MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA..STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR. A GOOD SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS WITH A TRAINING BEHAVIOR. HOWEVER...IF A MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK
FORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ON FRIDAY WONT SEE MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED STORMS.

IN THE EXTENDED...INVERTED TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE
WITH WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST AVN MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP STRONG SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WITH A DRIER AIR
MASS PUNCHING INTO ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO
SEE A COUPLE MODEL RUNS BEFORE CHANGING THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE
EXTENDED. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GENERAL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

MCCOLLUM

.FGZ...NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 3, 5:13 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila, Yavapai	32 min
Jul 3, 5:43 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	47 min
Jul 4, 3:11 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila	34 min
Jul 4, 3:34 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	26 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2001 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2001

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.