Severe Thunderstorm Warning 375, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
120 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2001

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER ON EARLY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WITH
FROPA AND THEN EXTENT OF COOL DOWN IN WAKE OF FRONT...

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
18Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MANITOBA
PROVINCE WITH ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SLICING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH PARENT COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS STILL EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SUGGESTING FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS
THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM BEST BREEDING GROUND FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT.

...FORECAST DETAILS...
EXTRAPOLATION OF FRONT...PER SATELLITE...RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL
SITES SUGGESTS BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THEN MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING. DESPITE QUIET RADAR ATTM FEEL
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY PRESENT TO FIRE STORMS OFF
AS AFTERNOON WEARS ON WITH THREAT LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
MINNESOTA. SEE SWODY1 DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS MATTER.
IN WAKE OF FRONT GOOD PUNCH OF CAA SLATED FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH LOW POP THREAT STILL JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE VALLEY AS
LINGERING CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATE SHOWER
CHANCES. ON FRIDAY HEART OF HIGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FAIR WEATHER CU ALONG WITH CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.EXTENDED...
A MORE STABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES ZONAL. MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE
OF BOUNDARIES TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...BUT
WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF PERSISTENCE WITH THE
LATTER FEATURE. WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.FGF...NONE

BERG/DONAVON