Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
315 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2001

...FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS SVR THUNDERSTORM THREAT...

.CURRENT CONDITIONS...06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW ENTERING THE
LAKE WINNIPEG REGION WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF MINOT TO NEAR DIK. IR IMAGERY
INDICATES A SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN CENTRAL SD ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ENHANCED BY THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. KMVX VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWING SSW FLOW OF 35 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST GATES. ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...TWO THUNDERSTORM MODES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS AVN AND ETA SHOW 336+K
850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ENTERING THE WESTERN FA BY 12Z AND
TRACKING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MOST
UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE MN COUNTIES AS BEST
HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE OVER THIS AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
LOWER BASED SVR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS MATCHES WELL TO SPC
06Z SWODY1 OUTLOOK. BOTH AVN AND ETA HAVE FROPA ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND EXITING THE EASTERN FA AROUND 00Z. THIS
APPEARS TO
BE REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.

.MID TERM...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MUCH MORE STABLE AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. NEXT CONCERN IS SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY. TIGHT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE...COMBINED WITH STRONG 850 MB COLD ADVECTION...SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS DECK TO FORM DURING THE DAY WITH SCT -SHRA EMBEDDED
WITHIN IN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONE SETS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THAT
EXPERIENCED IN RECENT DAYS.

.EXTENDED...NO CHANGES ATTM.

.FGF...NONE.

BRAMER

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-291300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
500 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TODAY...

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AREA OF CONCERN...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM
THE BORDER OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA EASTWARD.

TIME...NOON TO 8 PM.

TYPE OF HAZARD...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

BRAMER