Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
250 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE DEAL WITH MORNING DENSE FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN OR SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT. 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS
WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD
KHCO. HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE VALLEY INTO EASTERN MT. ALL MODELS
SIMILAR AT 500 MB SHOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW STARTING TO SHARPEN WITH
THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES. NUMEROUS SHORT
WAVES EJECTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN QPF PATTERNS OF THE
MODELS...AVN BEST MATCH WITH CURRENT QPF. ETA WETTEST OF THE
THREE...SO WENT WITH A COMPROMISE.

SFC FEATURES HARD TO PICK OUT AS TROUGH BOUNDARY REACHED THE VALLEY
AND HAS NEARLY STALLED. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN UP AND DOWN FROM KGFK
TO KHCO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY. ETA
SHOWS THE TROUGH REFORMING TODAY OVER CENTRAL ND AND LEANING TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT INTO LOW CLOUDS SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY...BREAKING UP A BIT BY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW SOME HEATING. BY
18Z BEST 700 MB LIFT AND 850-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
VALLEY AND EAST. CAPES NEARLY 4000 J/KG ALONG SFC BOUNDARY...WHERE
LI'S DROP BELOW -8. RIBBON OF 70 DEW POINTS ALONG THE VALLEY ALSO
FOCUS BACK ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT BOTH AVN AND ETA HAVE A WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH. 850 MB WARM FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO HANG UP ALONG THE
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SO WILL KEEP WITH INHERITED ZONES
CALLING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. FWC STILL RUNNING WARMER THAN MAV SO WITH MORE CLOUDS WILL
LEAN COOLER.

TONIGHT ETA AND AVN DIVERGE ON QPF FIELDS WITH AVN FIELDS FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE ETA. WILL KEEP A LOW POP TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME REMNANT
CONVECTION. ETA SFC LOW PLACEMENT BY 12Z TUE OVER SOUTHWEST SD WITH
AVN SOUTH OF KBIS. EITHER WAY ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED. ETA PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 2 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MUCH BETTER
THIS TIME AROUND WITH THE STRONGER WAVE. ETA SOUNDING FOR KFAR SHOWS
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW 00Z WED WITH VERY MOIST LAYER...SO HEAVY
RAIN MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT THAN SEVERE WEATHER.

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EXTENDED.

.FGF...NONE.

GODON

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-301400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
706 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...

SYNOPSIS...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO REFORM ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM NICELY BY AFTERNOON...
HELPING TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

AREA OF CONCERN...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

TIME...GREATEST RISK IS EXPECTED AFTER 9 PM CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TYPE OF HAZARD...HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

GODON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS
845 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0745 AM    4 NE CRETE                ND   1 INCH HAIL
07/30/01   SARGENT

0750 AM    ENGLEVALE                 ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/30/01   RANSOM