Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Issued

Jul 21, 2001, 2:56 AM CDT (07:56 UTC)

Expired

Jul 21, 2001, 3:45 AM CDT

In force

49 min

Issued by

NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area

Whole counties

Counties Benson County, ND, Eddy County, ND

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 210758
SVRFAR

NDC005-027-210845-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND-GRAND FORKS
256 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHERN BENSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN EDDY  
  COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 345 AM CDT.

* AT 251 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THE LEADING EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF DEVILS
  LAKE TO 37 MILES SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT
  20 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

  HAMAR AT 325 AM CDT.
  OBERON AT 310 AM CDT.
  
WINDS TO 80 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNINVG.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


$$
8

NNNN

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 8:18 PM CDT, 6 hours 38 minutes earlier.

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
815 PM FRI JUL 20 2001

EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF NE MT MCS IS THE FCST PROBLEM TONIGHT.

RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MCS IN NE MT ASSOC WITH AREA OF 70H WARM
ADVECTION WITH 30KT 85H MOIST FLOW FEEDING INTO INTO IT. ALSO THIS
IS AIDED BY VORT MAX MOVING THRU CNTRL MT INTO SASK. MCS IS TRACKING
ALONG THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER CWFA.  QUESTION IS CAN MCS SUSTAIN ITSELF SEVERE-WISE AS
IT MOVES TOWARD CWFA AFTER 06Z. ATMOSPHERE OVER CWFA...WHILE
MOIST...IS NOT THAT UNSTABLE COMPARED TO PAST NIGHTS.  85H MOIST
CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK WITH NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA IN A 85H COL.  K
INDICES PROG TO ACTUALLY DROP TO NR 20 IN NRN CWFA OVERNIGHT.

SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...THETA-E SHOWS BEST JUICE OVR FAR
SW ND AND NRN SD AND THIS MCS MAY TRY TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND FEED ON
THIS AIR OVERNIGHT.  THUS WOULD BRING BEST SVR BET SW CWFA AND
POINTS SOUTH OF THERE.  OR MCS WILL TRACK EAST AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN ND AFTER 06Z.
BUT WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING A THREAT. ATTM...WE ARE LEADING TOWARD
THIS SOLN.  ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

WITH UNCERTAINITIES AND ALL...WILL JUST LEAVE FFA ALONE.  WILL TWEEK
SOME TIME WORDING OF TSRA IN THE ZONES TO AFTER MIDNIGHT OR LATE.

.FGF...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGH/T ALONG AND NORTH OF A VALLEY CITY TO
HILLSBORO TO BEMIDJI LINE.

RIDDLE

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2001Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2001

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.