Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
240 AM CDT WED APR 11 2001

FORECAST FULL OF CHALLENGES AGAIN.  MAIN CONCERNS WOULD PROBABLY BE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF TSRA...WINDS TODAY...AND FLOOD POTENTIAL.
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING BOW (REFERENCE G76 IN CNK OB) MOVING ALONG KS/NE
BORDER...SO WILL KEEP THIS A LITTLE SHORTER THAN USUAL.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION NOT ALL THAT
UNSTABLE...MORE OR LESS MOIST ADIABATIC.  BUT WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING AT ALL LEVELS...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF
SVR FOR ALL ZONES.  HAVE A HUNCH FAR WRN ZONES WILL JUST SEE THE ONE
BATCH OF TSRA EARLY...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE POP FOR PSBL
EARLY AFTN REDEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE.  SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF STORMS
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMTS FROM BECOMING TOO EXCESSIVE...BUT WITH
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL QUITE HIGH...GROUND COMPLETELY SATURATED AND
SOME FFG VALUES BELOW 1...MUST EXTEND FF WATCH INTO THIS MORNING.

CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE FOR AFTN REDEVELOPMENT NOT TERRRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH STG UPPER DYNAMICS COMING OUT AND BASICALLY
UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE...SHOULD SEE NEXT ROUND FIRE THIS AFTERNOON.
ERN ZONES SEEM PRETTY GOOD BET...WRN ZONES WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
CHC.  IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS AND STILL GOOD INSTBY REQUIRE MENTION
OF SVR FOR AFTN FOR ERN ZONES...UNCERTAIN ABOUT WRN ZONES.

WILL GO AHEAD AND RUN WIND ADVY FOR ALL ZONES TODAY.  FIRST THOUGHT
WAS TO LIMIT IT TO AFTN FOR STG SUBSIDENT FLOW BEHIND DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...WATCHING OBS OVER KS AND OK SUGGESTS THAT ADVY CRITERIA
MAY BE REACHED AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING.

MAV GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSE AND WONT BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM IT
THROUGHOUT.

.EAX...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES THIS MORNING
WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES TODAY

MANION

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT WED APR 11 2001

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE UNTIL TONIGHT...

FORECAST:  SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.  THE STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST AND MAY NOT ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL LATE MORNING.
THE WINDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE.

ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ITS
DEVELOPMENT IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW LONG THE RAIN LASTS THIS
MORNING.  THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BETHANY TO CLINTON.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
CONSIDERABLE RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION:  A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.  WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY.  SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL BE TRANSPORTED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS ENHANCE THE
WINDS.  INSTABILITY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED THIS
MORNING...SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL.  THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS THE RAIN LASTS
FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG A
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...WOULD HAVE
A GREATER CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE.  STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK:  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.  MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER TONIGHT.

MANIONo

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX

KSZ025-102-MOZ001-011-111215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT WED APR 11 2001

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 126 THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ATCHISON AND HOLT COUNTIES IN MISSOURI AND
ATCHISON AND DONIPHAN COUNTIES IN KANSAS.  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED IN THESE AREAS.  HOWEVER...PERIODS OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS.

MANION

MOZ002>007-012>016-020>024-111200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
701 AM CDT WED APR 11 2001

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #129 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR...WORTH...
GRUNDY...ANDREW...SULLIVAN...CALDWELL...DAVIESS...HARRISON...
MERCER...LIVINGSTON...GENTRY...NODAWAY...BUCHANAN...CLINTON...DE
KALB...PUTNAM AND LINN COUNTIES... HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NO LONGER EXISTS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND COULD POTENTIALLY CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

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