Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...AND
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE THIS EVENING. LATER CONCERNS WILL
LINGERING SHOWERS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ALL AREAS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NWRN MO ARE CURRENTLY EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH
THAT IN MIND WILL EXPAND HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE
NERN MO AS WELL.

SURFACE OBS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A BROAD FRONT OVER SERN NEBRASKA AND
NWRN MO. I EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN EXTREMITY OF THE WIND SHIFT SO WILL LEAVE THE VERY EXTREME
NWRN ZONES DRY TONIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE EVE CHANCE POPS FROM STJ TO
MISSOURI RIVER AND LIKLEY POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE RIVER. SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE LACK OF
WIND SHEER. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY HIGH CAPES...AND
WILL DWINDLE AS SUN SETS.

WILL KEEP MAINLY MORNING POPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TOMORROW TO
COVER THE CHANCE FOR LINGERING MCS POTENTIAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON SAT AS A DISTURBANCE DIVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS FOR MAINLY SRN HALF OF THE WARNING AREA.

THE EXTENDED BECOMES TRICKY BY MID WEEK. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
BEEN GOOD. WILL PUT OUT FORECAST OF CLIMO BY WED AND THURS. UNTIL
THEN BELOW AVG TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.EAX...

HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 01Z
KS...ZONES 025-057-060-102>105.
MO...ZONES 007-008-016-017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054

KOCH

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

...A BREAK FROM THE HEAT ARRIVES TONIGHT...

FORECAST: THIS IS THE FINAL AFTERNOON OF DANGEROUS HEAT FOR
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...BEFORE COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE KANSAS
CITY...WARRENSBURG AND SEDALIA AREAS BY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL EXPERIENCE DANGEROUS
HEAT. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
SAINT JOSEPH...WARRENSBURG...SEDALIA...AND KANSAS CITY. HEAT INDICES
WILL REACH 105 DEGREES AND REMAIN IN THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY THROUGH
ABOUT 6 PM.

AS THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER OUR
REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WHEN ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. WEAK WIND SHEAR
PROFILES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS EPISODE.

OUTLOOK:  A COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWER
THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN WEEKS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX

KOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
418 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0333 PM    INDEPENDENCE              MO   .88 INCH HAIL
08/09/01   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0350 PM    INDEPENDENCE              MO   .75 INCH HAIL
08/09/01   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0402 PM    BLUE SPGS                 MO   WIND DAMAGE
08/09/01   JACKSON                        TREES AND POWERLINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.