Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
128 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2001

MANY FACTORS TO CONSIDER WITH THIS FORECAST...LEADING TO A NUMBER OF
DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.  MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE THUNDER
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON GENERAL
SOLUTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN WYOMING...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
SECONDARY BOUNDARY ALSO NOTED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH HAS MADE SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD TODAY.
SHOULD SEE SECONDARY BOUNDARY WASH OUT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...AS
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH BECOMES FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE SEEN H7 WAA FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...ALLOWING SOME
WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING WARMING
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN CAP...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.  ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER
IS CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY FIRE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS OF CORFIDI VECTORS AND H7-H3 THICKNESS
WOULD STEER THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD ACROSS IOWA OVERNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER NOSE OF H7 THERMAL RIDGE IS ALSO PUSHING INTO CWA. AT THIS
TIME...AM PLANNING ON A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE IN NORTHEAST CORNER...WHERE CAP WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG.

ALL MODELS AGREE IN ROTATING SERIES OF H5 VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY...HELPING TO CARVE OUT UPPER TROUGH...AND
GIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY A GOOD SHOVE SOUTH. SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE IN
SPEED OF COLD FRONT THOUGH...WHICH MAKES TEMPERATURE FORECAST QUITE
TRICKY WITH LARGE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
(I.E. FWC 87 AND MAV 67 AT KIRK). GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...AM
PLANNING TO LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS SLOWER/WARMER NGM SOLUTION.
IN ANY CASE...APPEARS TO BE A DECENT SHOT FOR CONVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

INTO THE EXTENDED...MODELS FORECASTING FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH CWA BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FOR THE
MIDDLE/END OF THE WORK WEEK. MRF CARVES OUT LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD KEEP REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND COOL AIR. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MODIFICATION
TO CANADIAN AIRMASS HOWEVER...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

MJM

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2001

FORECAST: THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS DECREASING OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A CAP
SHOULD INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION: ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE INTO A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT THAT INITIATED STORMS LAST NIGHT FROM
SALINA TO KANSAS CITY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND NORTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THIS FOCUSING MECHANISM
IN OUR AREA...AND CAPPING BUILDING OVER THE REGION STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

OUTLOOK: THE CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.

KOCH

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