Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
220 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

RETURN MOISTURE AND WARM FRONT DRAPPED OVER NRN KS/MO WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOWER TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN SWRN KS. THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE IS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS...BUT CAPPING HAS SURPRESSED CONVECTION THUS
FAR. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY INTO NWRN MO (7-8C)...BUT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BREAK THROUGH
THE CAP EARLY THIS EVENING IN NCENTRAL MO...AND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS
OVER NWRN MO SOME STORMS COULD FIRE AS WELL.

DONT ANTICIPATE AN ORGANIZED MCS TO FORM OUT OF THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX IS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT WHEN ETA/AVN PROG A 700MB TROUGH TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR MCS GENERATION WILL BE IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX COULD TRACK INTO NWRN MO BY EARLY
MORNING...SO WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHANCE POPS THERE. 850MB DEWPOINT
GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO BE VERY SHARP FROM NWRN MO TO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE SO CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DIE SHORTLY AFTER REACHING
THE MISSOURI RIVER. WILL TAPER POPS FROM NW MO TO CENTRAL MO
ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS PUSH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES OF 11 TO 13C SUGGEST A CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE STORMS INTO THE FORECAST
AND LEAVE THEM THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT STALLS OVER NRN MO. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.4

KOCH