Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

IR SAT SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL THIS MORNING...WITH
SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTION RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF KANSAS ALONG FRONT.
AS THE LLVL JET MOVES EAST...EXPECT THE LINE OF CONVECTION TO FOLLOW
ALONG. NWRN ZONES WILL SEE ACTIVITY BY ZONE ISSUANCE...HOWEVER THE
REST OF WRN CWA WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL MORE LIKE 12Z.  WHILE THE
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT ENTERS CWA...EXPECT DAYTIME
HEATING TO REDEVELOP/STRENGTHEN IT IN ERN CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
PROBABLY BE HIGHEST EAST OF I35.  DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MORESO THAN
SPEED SHEAR. WILL DO POPS CLOSE TO CURRNT ZFP/GUID. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF TRAINING AS FRONT SEEMS TO MOVE PRETTY FAST BY EVENING...BUT
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.    TEMPS ARE TRICKY. FEEL THAT TSRA
WILL TAKE LONG ENOUGH THAT ERN CWA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WHERE
THE WRN CWA WILL HALT WARMING ONCE PRECIP ARRIVES. WARM CURRENT
TEMPS...SO WILL GO NEAR 85 IN THE WEST AND UPPER 80S IN THE EAST.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...AND THIS IS
ALONG THE LINES OF CURRNT PKG.  COOLER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LVQ

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

FORECAST: THROUGH THE MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WEST OF AN I35 LINE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST OF AN I35 LINE.

DISCUSSION: A LINE OF STRONG STORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THEY ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND STRONG
SURFACE LOW. AS THESE STORMS PROPAGATE TO THE EAST...THEY WILL
PRODUCE BOUNDARIES...IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL
EXIT THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY
END THE ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX.

LVQ