Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 AM CST WED MAR 14 2001

MODELS CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER FOR FCST EVENT WED NITE/THURS. WILL
AGAIN MAINLY USE AN ETA SOLUTION...HOPING THAT SYSTEM DOES NOT TREND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH. FOR THIS AFTERNOON STRONG THETA/E ADV WILL BRING
THE CHC FOR RAIN IN A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT /IN
FACT...HIER DBZ OFF 88D MAY SHOW NEED FOR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING/
AND WILL PUT CHC POPS IN FOR WRN CWA. INSTABILITIES ARE
MARGINAL..BUT MAY STILL SEE A FEW TSRA AND WILL KEEP THIS WORDING
THRU THE NIGHT. PCPN MOVES FM WRN CWA IN THE EVENING...TO ERN CWA
BEFORE MIDNITE. INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE ETA KEEPS TEMPS VERY
WARM IN THE EAST. AND THEN AS LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND DRYING IN WRN CWA. THIS SEEMS TO BE HINTING
THAT AFTER INITIAL RAIN CHCS...THE WRN CWA WILL BE GENRLY DRY
SLOTTED UNTIL THURS. HOWEVER...WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH TIMING AND
BROADBRUSH POPS. ON THURS...THE MAIN FCST PRBLM IS PCPN TYPE. NERN
CWA CONTINUES TO SEE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH QS CONVERGENCE
SUPPORTING A TROWAL-LIKE FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AVN AND
ETA KEEP SFC TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE. EVEN WITH SOME DYNAMIC
COOLING...SHUD NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR FROZEN/FREEZING PCPN UNTIL AT
LEAST MIDDAY. CHANGEOVER MAY OCCUR ONLY SLIGHTLY EARLIER FOR NWRN
TIER OF COUNTIES. SO DUE TO TIMING OF SNOW OCCURRENCE AND WARMER
TEMPS...HAVE OPTED TO NOT PUT A WINTR WX WATCH IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL DO AN OUTLOOK AND ALSO HIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.EAX...NONE.

LVQ

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
130 PM CST WED MAR 14 2001

FORECAST: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND STREAMS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT BUT WIDE SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

ON THURSDAY...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A TROY TO BETHANY LINE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
NOONTIME. PERIODS OF HEAVY WET SNOW ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A 3 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE THE RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW UNTIL CLOSE TO THURSDAY EVENING. PERIODS
OF HEAVY WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME ACCUMULATION
IS LIKELY. FORECAST SNOWFALL DETAILS ARE FORTHCOMING THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION:  A LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING STORM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM SPRINGLIKE ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE STORM MOVES EAST AND DRAWS IN COLD AIR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK:  SNOW OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. OTHEWISE NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRIGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BODNER