Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
440 PM CST WED MAR 14 2001

DVLPG LATE WINTER/ERLY SPRING STORM TO BRING A VARIETY OF WX NXT 48
HRS. WV LOOP THIS PM SHWS STG SUBTROPICAL JET ACR MEXICO AND TX GULF
COAST CONTAINING PLENTY OF MID LVL MSTR AND NRN BRANCH DIGGING SWRD
THRU NRN ROCKIES. AS MENTIONED PAST FEW DAYS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES WILL DICTATE WHAT FALLS WHERE AND HOW
MUCH.

CNVTN FIRING LATE THIS PM AHD OF WRM FNT XTNDG FM KC METRO AREA EWRD
ACR MO RVR. CROS SECT DATA DOES NOT SUGGEST FAVORABLE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ERLY THIS EVNG SO NOT REAL CONFIDENT FOR SVR WX
FORMING WITH THIS INTIAL ROUND OF STORMS. AVN/ETA SHW MUCH STEEPER
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AFT 0300 UTC WITH AREA OF UPR/LWR TROPOSPHERIC
DVRGNC/CNVGNC. ISOLD LARGE HAIL NOT OUT OF QUESTION LTR THIS EVNG
AND OVERNIGHT.  ISSUES FLOD WATCH FOR ALL ZNS GIVEN AMT OF MSTR
BEING INJECTED INTO THIS SYS AND FCST FFG ARND 1.5 INCHES OR LESS.
SVRL NW MO RVS CONT TO RISE DUE TO LAST WKENDS RA ACR IA AND
SNOWMELT LAST FEW DAYS.

DESPITE LACK OF IMMEDIATE CD AIR UPSTREAM...DEEPENING SYS CONTS
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SGFNT DYNAMIC COOLING THUR PM. DID NOT HAVE COMPLETE
SET OF SOUNDING DATA FM 1200 UTC MODEL RUNS BUT FOLLOWED WET BULB
ZERO TEMP AT 850 HPA AND CAA PATTERN AT 700 HPA TO FCST MVMNT OF
RA/SN LN. MODELS FCST ATTM TO COOL UNIFORMALLY FM TOP DOWN SO THINK
CHG TO SN SHLD OCCUR ARND 1800 UTC THUR FAR NW MO AND 2200-2400 UTC
ALG MKC-IRK LN AND AFT 0000 UTC ACR SE CWA. WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT
XPTD TO BRACH OFF STG SUB-TROPICAL JET THINK THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR TROWAL TO SET UP FM SRN WI SWRD TO IA/MO BORDER. MODELS GRIDDED
DATA ALSO SHW STG MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACR NRN MO
BET 1800-2100 UTC. EMPIRACAL SNOWFALL RULES SUGGEST UP TO 8 INCHES
LOCALLY BUT SINCE A HVY WET SNOW ANTICIPATED BELIEVE THAT LIQ/SN
RATION MAY COME IN LESS AN 10:1. THERFORE WENT WITH 3-6 INCHES ACR
NRN MO AND MENTIONED FOR POTENTIAL OF >8 INCHES LOCALLY IN WSW.
UPRIGHT/SYMETRIC INTABILITY GET SHUT OFF ACCORDING TO MODEL CROS
SECTS ONCE LYR CAA TAKES PLACE. STILL WITH 6 HRS OF STG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE LIKELY THINK BANDING OF HVY SNOWFALL A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACR
NRN THIRD OF MO. FTHR S INSERTED CHC FOR 1-3 ICCHES WITH LCOALLY HVY
BURSTS OF SN THURS EVNG.

IN XTND FCST KEPT CHC FOR SN ON SAT WITH PROGREESIVE SHRT WV FCST BY
MED RANGE MODELS TO TRACK ACR SRN PLNS WITH WEAK INVERTED TROF INTO
MO. BUT WITH MORE OVERALL SRN TRACK FCST REMOVED PCPN THREAT FOR
SUN. RETURN OF MARCH SUN BY MIDDLE OF NXT WK PORTENDS WELL FOR TEMPS
TO GET BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN LWR TO MID 50S THEREOFR
BOOSTED MAX TEMPS UP SVRL CATS.

.EAX...

KS...FLOOD ADVSY ALL ZNS TNGT AND THUR
WINTER STORM WATCH THUR PM KSZ043

MO...FLODD ADVSY ALL ZNS TNGT AND THUR
WINTER STORM WATCH THUR/THUR NIGHT MOZ001>005-011-012
WINTER STORM WATCH THUR NIGHT MOZ006>008-015>017-024-025

BODNER

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
130 PM CST WED MAR 14 2001

FORECAST: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND STREAMS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT BUT WIDE SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

ON THURSDAY...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A TROY TO BETHANY LINE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
NOONTIME. PERIODS OF HEAVY WET SNOW ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A 3 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE THE RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW UNTIL CLOSE TO THURSDAY EVENING. PERIODS
OF HEAVY WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME ACCUMULATION
IS LIKELY. FORECAST SNOWFALL DETAILS ARE FORTHCOMING THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION:  A LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING STORM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM SPRINGLIKE ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE STORM MOVES EAST AND DRAWS IN COLD AIR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK:  SNOW OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. OTHEWISE NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRIGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BODNER