Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Detroit, MI

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
425 AM EDT MON APR 9 2001

DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER IN THE CWA...THIS AFD WILL BE BRIEF...SORRY

INITIAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA.  MODELS TAKE MCS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.  FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES COMPARED TO QPF SHOULD KEEP THINGS IN LINE.
ALTHOUGH...STILL MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ZONES.  WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.

SHOULD GET A DECENT SUBSTANCE BEHIND DEPARTING MCS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS COUNTIES
THERE.

THEN WAVE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST.  STILL NOT CERTAIN
ABOUT POPS TONIGHT BUT WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE IS WILL BE NEAR THE
BORDER.  WITH TT/S ABOVE 50 AND THE POTENTIAL OF MORE ELEVATED
CONVECTION...STILL WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF STORMS SOUTH AND NORTH
1/3 AND NEAR LAKE HURON JUST SHOWERS.

DRYING TAKES PLACE TUESDAY BEFORE WE MAY BE DOING THIS ALL OVER
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
DEVELOPS.

ZONES BY 445 AM (HOPEFULLY).

THANKS FOR THE COORD GRR AND APX

.DTX...NONE.

BGM

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-101200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1027 AM EDT MON APR 9 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS... PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THREE DISTINCT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST...CURRENTLY ONGOING...WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT SANILAC LINE. THE SECOND THREAT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE THIRD AND FINAL THREAT WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME. THESE STORMS ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT.
UNTIL 1 PM...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF AN OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT SANILAC LINE. THIS AREA
INCLUDES METRO FLINT...METRO DETROIT...ADRIAN...AND MONROE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...TO TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 50 MPH. SPOTTER ACTIVATION
HAS BEEN INITIATED FOR THIS EVENT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED. THIS THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 94...INCLUDING
ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...AND MONROE. A FRONT LOCATED IN
NORTHERN OHIO WILL MEANDER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING
FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS EVENT
WILL BE HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BETWEEN 10 PM
AND 5 AM TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED. THE THREAT IS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SAGINAW...PORT SANILAC LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES
MOST OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY...METRO FLINT...METRO DETROIT AND POINTS
ALONG THE OHIO BORDER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 25 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OKEEFE