Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Detroit, MI

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
940 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2001

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER SE LOWER THIS EVENING. NARROW SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SETTLED OVER LOWER ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DROP
OFF SHARPLY. THIS COMBO HAS RESULTED IN A FAST DROP IN THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE RURAL AREAS FROM VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME READINGS.
THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SCENARIO FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUES TO
LOOK GOOD. STORMS HAVE FIRED NEAR THE WARM SURFACE BOUNDARY IN AREA
OF MAX SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER IA AND SE NE. VARIOUS
MODELS HANDLE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS DIFFERENTLY, BUT ALL RESULT
IN SE LOWER EVENTUALLY GETTING WET. SURFACE FEATURES AT 01Z MATCH UP
PRETTY WELL WITH SOLUTIONS FROM 18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC40. THE ETA
MARCHES AN MCS ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL OVERNIGHT,
EVENTUALLY BRINGING BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER AFTER 12Z.
ETA USUALLY PRETTY GOOD IN SHOWING MCS DEVELOPMENT, BUT TRACK RECORD
FAR WORSE ON NAILING THE LOCATION, ALTHOUGH LATEST TRENDS ADD
CONFIDENCE. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, THE RUC40
PROPAGATES SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF IT AS 850MB
THETAE ADVECTION SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT. THUS, THE RUC40 IS A LITTLE QUICKER IN BRINGING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LOW AT BEST AS ALL MODELS SHOW
BEST INSTABILITY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. CONVECTION OVER SRN
LOWER WILL BE ELEVATED, MITIGATING ANY HIGH WIND THREAT, AND
INSTABILITY PROGGED TOO LOW FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE HAIL. LATEST DAY 2
HAS REMOVED SE LOWER FROM SEVERE THROUGH 12Z AND WILL REFRESH
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK TO PLAY DOWN SEVERE CHANCES EVEN MORE. EVENING
ZONE UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO ADDRESS LATEST TRENDS.

.DTX...NONE.

JW

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-091200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1022 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS... PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA LATE
SUNDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE QUICKLY EAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY
AFFECTING THE REGION AFTER 4 AM...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 69. DUE TO A LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...NONE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH RATES UP TGO ONE INCH PER HOUR...WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE STORMS MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JW

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-091200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA LATE
SUNDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE QUICKLY EAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...LIKELY AFFECTING THE REGION AFTER 4 AM...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN
INDIANA. THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94
AFTER 2 AM. DUE TO A LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...NONE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE STORMS MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JW