Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1215 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2001

BUSY MORNING BUT I WANTED TO SEND THE AFD TO LET EVEYRONE KNOW THAT
THE ZOENS HAD BEEN UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND TO UPDATE
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PERIODS.  THE MORNING CONVECTION THREW A
MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE WORKS AND THE MCS OVER KS MOVING INTO IOWA
PROMISES TO FURTHER MUDDY THE FORECAST.  GIVEN THE ATMOSHERE GETTING
WORKED OVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHILE STILL EXISTS...IS NOT AS
GOOD AS IT ONCE WAS.  CONFERRED WITH SPC AS THIER MODERATE RISK WAS
REMOVED FROM IOWA.  THE CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON IS HAIL AND FLASH
FLOODING.

THE MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT THE 850 MB FRONT HANGING BACK IN NE
AND MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

.DSM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 TODAY.

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1134 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0745 AM    ALGONA                    IA   NON TSTM WINDS
06/14/01   KOSSUTH                        50+ MPH NON TSTM WINDS.
                                          TWO TO THREE FOOT
                                          DIAMETER TREES BLOWN
                                          DOWN IN TOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY LAW ENFORCEMENT
                                          OFFICIAL.

0857 AM    INDIANOLA                 IA   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/14/01   WARREN                         REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1212 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0801 AM    2 N BURT                  IA   NON TSTM WINDS
06/14/01   KOSSUTH                        63 MPH NON TSTM WINDS.
                                          REPORTED BY MEDIA.

0815 AM    BUFFALO CENTER            IA   NON TSTM WINDS
06/14/01   WINNEBAGO                      60+ MPH NON TSTM WINDS.
                                          WINDOWS BLOWN OUT.
                                          BUFFALO STATUE BLOWN
                                          OVER. REPORTED BY MEDIA.

CENTRAL IOWA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
115 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES IOWA FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST OF DES MOINES AS STORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI. FARTHER WEST...THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER WESTERN IOWA AS SOUTH
WINDS TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE KANSAS CITY AREA. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN A NORTH TO
SOUTH LINE OVER WESTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA...CLOSER TO THE
INSTABILITY AND INFLOW.  SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN IOWA
SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST...WHILE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS AND REPEAT
HEAVY RAINS ARE MORE LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF DES MOINES.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK TURNING OF THE WIND DIRECTION WITH
HEIGHT ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SEE SITE SPECIFIC DETAILS BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>037-044>048-151100-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALGONA...AMES...BOONE...CARROLL...
DENISON...ESTHERVILLE...FORT DODGE...IOWA FALLS...MASON CITY AND
WEBSTER CITY
546 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

* EVENT TIMING... 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

* THREAT CATEGORIES...
     TORNADO.......... LOW.
     DAMAGING WINDS... LOW.
     LARGE HAIL....... LOW.
     FLASH FLOODING... MODERATE.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK... MODERATE.

* SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER HAS LESSENED SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY TO BE FARTHER SOUTHWEST. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IAZ057>060-070>073-081>083-092>094-151100-
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-POLK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC...CRESTON...DES MOINES...
INDIANOLA...LAMONI AND PERRY
546 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

* EVENT TIMING... THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* THREAT CATEGORIES...
     TORNADO.......... LOW.
     DAMAGING WINDS... LOW.
     LARGE HAIL....... MODERATE.
     FLASH FLOODING... MODERATE.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK... MODERATE.

* A COMBINED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

IAZ027-028-038-039-049-050-061-062-074-075-084>086-095>097-151100-
APPANOOSE-BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-DAVIS-GRUNDY-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-
MONROE-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CENTERVILLE...CHARITON...GRINNELL...
KNOXVILLE...MARSHALLTOWN...NEWTON...OSKALOOSA...OTTUMWA...PELLA...
WATERLOO AND WAVERLY
546 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

* EVENT TIMING... CONTINUED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

* THREAT CATEGORIES...
     TORNADO.......... NONE.
     DAMAGING WINDS... LOW.
     LARGE HAIL....... MODERATE.
     FLASH FLOODING... MODERATE.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK... MODERATE.

* THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 30...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS THIS EVENING.

JUNGBLUTH

-------------------------------------------------------------------

THREAT KEY:
    TORNADO.......... ANY TORNADO OCCURRENCE
    DAMAGING WINDS... WINDS >= 58 MPH
    LARGE HAIL....... HAIL >= 3/4 INCH DIAMETER
    FLASH FLOODING... FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINS WITHIN 6 HOURS
                      OF RAIN EVENT. POSES THREAT TO LIFE OR
                      PROPERTY.

THREAT CATEGORY KEY:  PROBABILITY OF THREAT OCCURRING WITHIN 25
                      MILES OF POINT WITHIN FORECAST AREA
    NONE....... NOT EXPECTED.  LESS THAN 5% ( 2% FOR TORNADOES)
    LOW........ 5-15% (2-15% FOR TORNADOES)
    MODERATE... 25-35%
    HIGH....... 45% OR GREATER

SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK KEY:
    NOT EXPECTED
    LOW........ ACTIVATION POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY
    MODERATE... POSSIBILITIES ABOUT 50-50
    HIGH....... ACTIVATION LIKELY

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PROBABILISTIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...GO
TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE AT
WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/PROBINFO.HTML .