Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
615 PM CST SUN APR 8 2001

A QUICK MESOSCALE UPDATE.  SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DELAYING DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT.  CELLS ARE VERY PULSY SO FAR.
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT AS SEEN BY
NEARLY STATIONARY FINE LINE ON 88D.  AUGUSTINE/CARACENA METHOD WOULD
POINT TO FAVORED MCS INITIATION IN NE KS INTO SW IA, WHICH WOULD
MAKE SENSE GIVEN STRONGER MOISTURE FLUX IN THIS AREA.  18Z META
HANDLING THIS WELL, AND AGREE WITH LATEST QPF DISC.  TORNADO THREAT
WOULD APPEAR VERY LOW GIVEN VERY HIGH LFC HEIGHTS AROUND 8KFT EARLY
THIS EVENING BASED ON MODIFIED 18Z TOP SOUNDING.  MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE THIS THREAT LATER, BUT BELIEVE WE WILL BE IN
A MORE MCS MODE BY THAT TIME.  SO LARGE HAIL AND SOME DRY
MICROBURSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SITUATION.

.DSM...NONE

KULA

CENTRAL IOWA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
232 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2001

A STRONG WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND IS EXPECTED TO
GO STATIONARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
HIGH WIND SHEAR...MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY HIGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS...WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

SEE SITE SPECIFIC DETAILS BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

IAZ037>039-047>050-057>061-070>073-081-082-092-090000-
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-CASS-DALLAS-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AMES...ATLANTIC...BOONE...CRESTON...
DES MOINES...INDIANOLA...IOWA FALLS...MARSHALLTOWN...NEWTON...
WATERLOO/CEDAR FALLS
232 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2001

* EVENT TIMING... 8 PM THROUGH 3 AM

* THREAT CATEGORIES...
     TORNADO......... NONE
     DAMAGING WINDS.. LOW
     LARGE HAIL...... LOW
     FLASH FLOODING.. LOW

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK... LOW

IAZ062-074-075-083>086-093>097-090000-
APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-WAPELLO-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CENTERVILLE...CHARITON...GRINNELL...
KNOXVILLE...LAMONI...MOUNT AYR...OSKALOOSA...OTTUMWA
232 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2001

* EVENT TIMING... 8 PM THROUGH 3 AM

* THREAT CATEGORIES...
     TORNADO......... LOW
     DAMAGING WINDS.. LOW
     LARGE HAIL...... MODERATE
     FLASH FLOODING.. MODERATE

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK... MODERATE

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
POSSIBLY FALLING IN LESS THAN 3 HOURS.

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THREAT KEY:
    TORNADO......... ANY TORNADO OCCURRENCE
    DAMAGING WINDS.. WINDS >= 58 MPH
    LARGE HAIL...... HAIL >= 3/4 INCH DIAMETER
    FLASH FLOODING.. FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINS WITHIN 6 HOURS.
                     POSES THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

THREAT CATEGORY KEY:  PROBABILITY OF THREAT OCCURRING WITHIN 25
                      MILES OF POINT WITHIN FORECAST AREA.
    NONE...... NOT EXPECTED.  LESS THAN 5% ( 2% FOR TORNADOES)
    LOW....... 5-15% (2-15% FOR TORNADOES)
    MODERATE.. 25-35%
    HIGH...... 45% OR GREATER

SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK KEY:
    NOT EXPECTED
    LOW........ ACTIVATION POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY
    MODERATE... POSSIBILITIES ABOUT 50-50
    HIGH....... ACTIVATION LIKELY

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PROBABILISTIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...GO
TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE AT
WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/PROBINFO.HTML.

MYERS