Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
250 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2001

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND FOLLOWED THE ETA FOR MOST OF DETAILS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ATTM IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA NEAR THIS
FEATURE. COLD FRONT FURTHER WEST. 850MB/SURFACE COLD FRONTS SLOW AS
THEY MOVE INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. 700MB TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL
AND DROP BELOW 10C BY 06Z. 100KT JET MAX ALSO CRUISES THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND WILL CREATE ADDED
DIVERGENCE. COMBO OF CONVERGENCE WITH LOWER LEVEL COLD FRONT AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AS CAP ERODES LATER THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S REMAIN OVER MOST OF
CWA SO LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KTS
INCREASES TO 30-40KTS BY 06Z. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES...AND
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES
DEVELOP/MOVE CLOSER TO CWA.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH CWA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. GUSTY
WIND TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH 35 KNOTS AT
850MB. AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS...PARTIAL CLEARING TO DEVELOP. THERE
MAY BE MORE CLOUDS FAR NORTH.

FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...BUT INCREASED SOME TOMORROW.

.DLH...NONE.

MELDE