Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...FINAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
309 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO SEVERE CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

STRONG UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP NEAR 4 CORNERS REGION
WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON PUSHING THE PVA INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 12Z. NGM IS
ODD MODEL OUT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LOW TOO FAST COMPARED WITH
ETA AND AVN. WITH UPPER COOLING AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL GO AT LEAST
70 POPS IN WEST AND 50 TO 60 PCT ELSEWHERE. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN WEST WITH WEAK UPPER WINDS UNTIL WAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
TROUGH LINE NEAR SYRACUSE AND SPC IS PUTTING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IN THAT AREA THROUGH 9 PM CDT. WILL NEED TO MENTION SEVERE
WORDING IN ZONES. BEST SEVERE THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 10,900 FT AGL.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN MID 60S EXCEPT WARMER SOUTHEAST
AROUND 70 TO 72.

ON THURSDAY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO
AND DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH DODGE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH UPPER
DYNAMICS AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST 50 TO 60 POPS DURING DAY AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY MORE CLOUDS AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
WHERE WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES WINDS TO EAST. WILL GO WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH THE WARMEST AROUND MED LODGE WITH NEAR 95. COULD ALSO
SEE A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING.

BY FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL POP IN SOUTHEAST AS UPPER LOW
STILL NOT THROUGH THAT AREA YET. AS LOW MOVES EAST DURING AFTERNOON
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WEST WITH SUBSIDENCE.
WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 90 WITH COOLER UPPER 80S NORTH.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH DISCUSSION AS AM SHORT ON TIME.  STILL AT LEAST SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WITH A FEW MINOR S/WVS THAT COULD BRING
CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THERE MAY
BE SOME LATE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT TSRA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS NEXT WEEK BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.  BEST CAA TO BE
EARLY NEXT (AND MOST SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST OF MY CWA) WEEK AND WILL
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF 70S.

FOR THE LATEST 2-WEEK OUTLOOK FROM THIS OFFICE, CHECK OUT THE
FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/wx/2week.txt

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 065/088 065/092 065 655
GCK 064/087 063/092 063 655
EHA 064/088 063/092 062 754
LBL 065/088 063/092 064 754
HYS 065/085 066/088 065 666
P28 072/094 070/093 067 557

.DDC...NONE.

KRUSE/HUTTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY, KS
634 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 PM    2 W COOLIDGE              KS   .88 INCH HAIL
08/22/01   HAMILTON                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY, KS
1030 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0750 PM    10 NW ELKHART             KS   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
08/22/01   MORTON                         ESTIMATED. REPORTED BY
                                          CO-OP OBSERVER.

0805 PM    17 S MEADE                KS   WIND DAMAGE
08/22/01   MEADE                          4-5 INCH LIMBS BROKEN.
                                          REPORTED BY CITIZEN.

0814 PM    18 WSW ASHLAND            KS   70 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
08/22/01   CLARK                          ESTIMATED. REPORTED
                                          BY CO-OP OBSERVER.

0827 PM    6 SE MINNEOLA             KS   80 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
08/22/01   CLARK                          ESTIMATED. REPORTED
                                          BY CITIZEN.

0833 PM    MINNEOLA                  KS   .75 INCH HAIL 08/22/01
CLARK                                     REPORTED BY CO-OP
                                          OBSERVER.

TSB/WE