Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES TONIGHT ARE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES, THEN CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALSO HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF GOODLAND WITH
COLD POOL MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ARE IN NORTH CWA CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. DRY SLOT AT MID TO
LOWER LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE CWA FROM THUNDER. WILL HOWEVER KEEP A 20 POP JUST IN CASE AS
VORT LOBE ROTATES OVER THEM. CAPES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM 2000
TO 3000 J/KG IN THE NORTH AND ANOTHER MAX EAST OF TROUGH LINE FROM
DODGE AND EAST. SPC HAS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NORTH 1/2 CWA
UNTIL 8 PM AND LOOKS GOOD. MAY HAVE MORE SEVERE DEVELOPING FROM
ASHLAND TO ST. JOHN AND EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF TROUGH. AS FOR LOWS TONIGHT MID TO UPPER 60S LOOK GOOD.

ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ONLY IN SOUTHEAST CWA FOR
NOW AS AVN DEPICTS VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND BACK OF UPPER LOW. ETA
MODEL SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITIES ALSO IN THAT AREA SO WILL KEEP A
30 POP THAT AREA. WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER REST OF REGION WILL KEEP
OTHER AREAS DRY.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOL FRONT TO
SOUTH OF AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S LOOK GOOD EXCEPT WARMER
NEAR MED LODGE AROUND 70.

THEN ON SATURDAY AVN AND ETA MODELS SHOWS SECONDARY VORT LOBE TO
MOVE DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RETURN MOISTURE AND UPPER
DESTABLIZATION SHOULD GIVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER DURING
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. WILL GO WITH A SMALL POP TO COVER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CURRENT FWC
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HIGH COMPARED TO ETA FORECAST SOUNDING TEMPS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DRY PHASE OF THE MJO BEGINNING AND A
DECREASE IN RELATIVE AAM NOTED FROM CDC WEB SITE AM CURRENTLY
FAVORING THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION OF A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BRIEFLY
DEVELOPING LATE THIS WEEKEND THEN MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS MID WEEK. AS A RESULT APPEARS A NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE CNTL PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND
WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT THEN STARTS ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION BRINGING BACK WARMER TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
FROM MID WEEK ON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS A MENTION OF PCPN ON
SUNDAY SO WILL LEAVE THIS ALONE FOR NOW AND MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE
AGAIN FOR MONDAY. WILL THEN FOLLOW THIS UP WITH TEMP WARMING TEMPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE LATEST 2-WEEK OUTLOOK FROM THIS OFFICE, CHECK OUT THE
FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/wx/2week.txt

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 065/093 066/089 061 510
GCK 064/090 064/088 058 610
EHA 064/094 063/088 059 210
LBL 065/094 064/089 060 210
HYS 065/090 066/087 058 710
P28 069/092 070/092 065 731

.DDC...NONE.

KRUSE/RB