Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON WEDNESDAY PLUS
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BASICALLY, THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A DECENT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST.  STRONGER WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SOUTHWEST WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF COLD FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE
APEX ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER NEAR GOODLAND.  STORMS ALSO
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT.  THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS APPEAR IN PART TO BE DRIVEN BY WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.

RUC MODEL HAS THE FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT INTO MY WESTERN
ZONES BY 00Z WHICH IS SIMILAR WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.  18Z KDDC
SOUNDING SHOWS VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG AND SRH >600 M2/S2.  DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO IN PLACE
PER THIS MORNINGS H85 ANALYSIS WITH +16 TDS AT KAMA AND KOUN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT KDDC THIS AFTERNOON IS NEAR 150% OF NORMAL SO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

WILL BE GOING WITH HIGH POPS OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA TONIGHT.  THINK MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTING
TO ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AROUND 00Z.  WILL STILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST FOR EVENING STORMS. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS NOT BEEN MOVING TOO FAST, AREAL
SPEED SHOULD INCREASE AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES IN AND CARRIES IT
TO THE EAST.  WILL HOLD OFF ON A FFA BUT WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER WAVE CONTINUES ON EAST TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN ON EAST OUT OF THE AREA.  WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWA BUT WILL GO
WITH SILENT POP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS AREA COMES UNDER
NVA AND DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AROUND TOMORROW AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC.  DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN SO QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG CLOUDS PERSIST.  WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
WORDING GOING FOR TOMORROW AND THEN GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TOMORROW NIGHT.  FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL GENERALLY GO A FEW DEGREES
TO FIVE DEGREES BELOW FWC GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

TIME IS SHORT FOR A DEEP INTERROGATION OF THE EXTENDED TODAY. MOST
OF THE GOING EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH QUIET LATE WEEK
PERIODS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGING
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION BACK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE COOLED
THINGS OFF A BIT ON MONDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE WAVE
AND THEN BEGIN WARM TEMPS UP AGAIN AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDGE TAKES
CONTROL AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 057/072 050/076 052 710
GCK 056/071 048/075 050 710
EHA 055/074 051/079 051 510
LBL 056/073 050/077 051 710
HYS 056/068 048/074 049 910
P28 063/075 054/080 055 720

.DDC...NONE.

GERARD/POAGE