Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2001

THE GREATEST EXCITEMENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL COME TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF SEVERE CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER AND
THEIR DRAMATIC EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE UNCERTAINTY FOR
THE LATER PERIODS.

THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
THE DEEP BLOCKING LOW OVER WISCONSIN STILL IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST, AND WIDESPREAD 24 HOUR HEIGHT RISES WERE EVIDENT
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE ON THE MORNING ANALYSES AGAIN TODAY.
HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN THE PAST 24
HOURS...SUGGESTING A RETURN TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE AVN AND ETA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THE
SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH WAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS, WHILE THE RGL
CONTINUES ITS USUAL TREND OF LIFTING THE OLD BOUNDARY TOO FAR TO THE
NORTH AND DEVELOPING THE CYCLONE TOO FAR NORTH. THE AVN SOLUTION OF
MAINTAINING THE 30N/124W WAVE AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AND TILTS THE SCALE TOWARD THE
AVN AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS PACKAGE.

LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
CONVECTION FIRED EARLIER ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND SUBSEQUENTLY BECAME SEVERE EAST OF THE DODGE CITY AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFTING, FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND LIFTING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SHOULD
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT, AND A MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES APPROACHING 3000
JOULES/KG SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SHEAR
PROFILE, THE CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED FAIRLY
QUICKLY, AND THE THREAT OF ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES
DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT. HIGH POPS AND THE MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS IN ORDER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ON MEMORIAL DAY
FOLLOWING THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE PERSISTENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA THAN ELSEWHERE,
AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE REDUCED ACCORDINGLY. CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE
70S.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CARRY MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT, AND THE APPROACH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE
WILL ASSIST WITH DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER TUESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHORT DISCUSSION WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.  SHORT ON
TIME TODAY.  TODAY/S AVN CAME AROUND TO RESEMBLE YESTERDAY/S ECMWF.
QUICK LOOK AT MRF MODEL ALSO SHOWED A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN
26/00Z RUN.  THIS LEADS TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE GOING FORECAST
AND WILL ONLY TWEAK NUMBERS A BIT.

WILL TREND TOWARD THE SAME SOLUTION AS YESTERDAY, BUT TRIM BACK ON
POPS FOR THURSDAY.  WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE, WITH UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES FIRST AROUND FRIDAY...THEN
MIGRATING EAST OVER DDC CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND BE EAST OF
CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 057/075 055/071 056 714
GCK 057/073 055/070 055 714
EHA 056/071 055/070 055 514
LBL 058/073 056/072 057 614
HYS 053/076 053/071 053 612
P28 060/079 059/074 059 813

.DDC...NONE.

01/BURKE