Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2001

CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE WEST ARE EARLY CONCERNS TONIGHT,
THEN HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW AROUND VICINITY OF FRONT AND MORE THREAT
OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE MAP SHOWING DRYLINE TROF IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO WITH
TROF LINE TOWARD GOODLAND. THIS LINE WILL BE THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THE QUESTION IS WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME WITH CAP STRENGTH LESS
THAN 2C AND CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG. ALSO A THETA-E RIDGE IS IN FAR
WEST SO THE WEST IS PRIMED TO GO WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THE MID LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS LOOKING AT PROFILERS ARE ONLY 20 KNOTS, SO WIND SHEAR IS NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE. CURRENT THINKING IS STORMS WILL BE PULSE SEVERE
WITH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW AND MORE STORMS
INITIATING FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL GO 50 POP WEST AND 30 TO
40 POP ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL COLD FRONT BE.
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SHOULD POP MORE POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. WILL CANVAS WHOLE AREA WITH 50 POP.

THE FRONT THEN MAKES IT THROUGH MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF THUNDER. ON FRIDAY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF
60S IF THICK CLOUDS STAY IN, BUT FOR NOW WILL HEDGE ON SOME BREAKS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR 65 TO 70 IN THE HAYS
AREA. ALSO ON FRIDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
DEPICTED BY AVN SO MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE MIX. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE WITH A 50 POP TO COVER.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT DURING SUNDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS,
THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE. TEMPS WILL BE CORRESPONDINGLY WARMER
FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD AS WELL.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR THE MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK. EC/UK MODELS SHOW A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME THAN
THE MRF/AVN. SOME CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A COLDER UPPER FLOW
REGIME ALLOWING FOR COOLER AIR TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT, WILL TREND SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ON TEMPS
FOR WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY PERIOD. IF NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH CWA DURING
TUESDAY, THEN PCPN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO NIL FOR WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 062/088 054/072 050 355
GCK 058/087 053/071 049 355
EHA 056/091 056/075 052 555
LBL 055/091 057/075 052 555
HYS 060/082 052/068 047 554
zP28 064/089 062/075 052 345

.DDC...NONE.

KRUSE/MCCAMMON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-100200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2001

...STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM CDT WEST OF A SCOTT CITY
TO LIBERAL LINE...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER AFTER 3 PM
CDT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA IS ALONG AND TO THE WEST
OF A SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL LINE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD SUBSIDE BETWEEN 7PM CDT AND SUNSET.

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