Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, THEN IF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS DEVELOP LATE.

SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOTS OF MOISTURE IN A NARROW RIBBON ON WEST SIDE
OF HIGH MOVING IN FROM WEST TEXAS WITH PLUME INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SATELLITE PICS SHOW AREA OF CU WITH SOME TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
ALONG A TROF LINE. WILL NEED A SMALL POP THIS EVENING TO COVER ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISH
RAPIDLY BY SUNSET.

THEN LATER TONIGHT GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUMP WITH SOUTH WINDS
STAYING AT 10 TO 20 MPH. SOME STRATUS DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS PAN
LAST NIGHT SO SHOULD HAVE SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE OVER SWRN KS.
WILL GO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE H85 GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHT ENOUGH FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED. H85 FCST TEMPS FROM 21 TO
25C YIELD SURFACE TEMPS FROM MID 80S TO LOW 90S. WILL GO WITH LOW
90S WEST TO AROUND/NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE. MAIN VORT AND FRONTS STAY
NORTH AND WEST OF AREA SO MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY LOOK GOOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THREAT
FOR THUNDER ALL AREAS. WILL GO WITH A 30 TO 40 POP.

THURSDAY IS A FAIRLY HARD FORECAST FOR TEMPS WITH FRONT FORECAST TO
BE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COULD BE 90 PLUS IN WARM SECTOR
WITH ONLY 70S NORTH OF FRONT. WILL HEDGE TOWARD GUIDANCE OF 80 TO 85
IN WARM SECTOR AND MID 70S IN NORTH CWA. FRONT COULD BE KICKED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. IF THIS PANS OUT 70S WILL
BE COMMON PLACE ACROSS ENTIRE AREA.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WITH COLD FRONT OVER AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE WARRANTED. ALSO, WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING TO OUR SOUTH BY WEEK'S END, WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS GOING FOR
SATURDAY.

DRYLINE/SFC TROF WILL MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SO CAN'T RULE OUT STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 057/089 060/083 054 103
GCK 055/089 057/082 054 204
EHA 056/092 055/089 055 203
LBL 056/090 057/089 057 203
HYS 056/089 058/0<76 053 204
P28 057/090 063/085 060 002

.DDC...NONE.

KRUSE/MCCAMMON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY, KS
617 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0443 PM    5 W LIEBENTHAL            KS   .88 INCH HAIL
05/08/01   RUSH

0521 PM    2 N LA CROSSE             KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/08/01   RUSH

0604 PM    2 S RUSH CENTER           KS v  1.00 INCH HAIL
05/08/01   RUSH

RB