Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
100 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2001

OVERALL TREND IN MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW SYSTEM DOWN AND DIG UPPER
LOW FURTHER S.  IN SHORT TERM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER SE WY INTO THE PNHNDL...HOWEVER APPEARS THAT CAP WILL KEEP
STORMS MINIMAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AS SOME BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT SHIFTS E...STORMS LIKELY TO TAKE OFF IN SPOTS.  MESOETA
STILL POINTS TO NRN PNHNDL AS MOST LIKELY AREA...WITH DRIER AIR ON
S/SW WINDS MIXING DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF SE WY INTO THE SRN PART OF THE
PNHNDL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP EYE ON THINGS FOR NOW.
ONCE WE REACH 10 PM OR SO...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW SHIFTING SE
OF AREA...WITH MDT NW SFC WINDS KICKING IN.  MODELS POINT TO MAIN
FRONTAL BAND OF CLDS/SHWRS MOVING OUT OF AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
MUCH OF AREA IN A DRY SLOT ON WED AS UPPER LOW BEGINS SHIFTING E BY
SUNSET.  ALL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE/SHWRS ASSOCD WITH
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.  SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6000 FEET OR SO...COULD SEE A FEW
INCHES HIGHER SE MOUNTAINS.  BY THU AFTN...ENTIRE SYS E OF AREA WITH
DRYING.  TEMPS TRICKY...LOOKS LIKE HIGHS ON WED NOT AS COLD AS EARLY
FCSTS HAD...AND THU COOLER THAN EARLY THOT.  GOOD DOWNSLOPE NW WINDS
BOTH DAYS...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BOTH DAYS WITHIN
5 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER.  IN EXTENDED...A RETURN TO A MORE
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
ON FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...A
SLIGHT CHC ON SAT...THEN A CHC SUN-TUE.  APPEARS THAT MRF MEX/FMR
GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS CLIMO AS MRF APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY DRY.
SINCE PREVIOUS EXTENDED ALREADY HAD SOME MENTION OF LATE DAY
STORMS...WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW AS SOMETIMES IT IS HARD TO GAGE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND LATE IN EXTENDED PERIODS.

.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

JAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE, WY
617 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2001

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0315 PM    5 N LANCE CREEK WY             1.00 INCH HAIL
06/12/01   NIOBRARA

0553 PM    18 NW CRAWFORD NE              1.25 INCH HAIL
06/12/01   SIOUX

0613 PM    12 NW CHADRON NE               TORNADO
06/12/01   DAYWES                          REPORTED BY NWS
                                          PERSONNEL

COX

NEZ001-019-020-054-055-WYZ059-060-067>070-130130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
630 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2001

...TORNADO WATCH 408 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE REPLACED...

THE TORNADO WATCH FOR EASTERN CONVERSE...NIOBRARA...GOSHEN...
PLATTE AND LARAMIE COUNTIES HAS BEEN DROPPED.  THE WATCH HAS
ALSO BEEN DROPPED FOR SIOUX...SCOTTS BLUFF...BANNER...KIMBALL
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

DAWES...BOX BUTTE AND MORRILL COUNTIES ARE NOW UNDER TORNADO WATCH
413 WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  THIS WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH 408 WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 800 PM.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES HAS SHIFTED
EAST OUT OF WYOMING AND IS NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE PANHANDLE.

COX

WCJIN-WYNE-WYSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE, WY
714 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2001

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0315 PM    5 N LANCE CREEK WY             1.00 INCH HAIL
06/12/01   NIOBRARA

0553 PM    18 NW CRAWFORD NE              1.25 INCH HAIL
06/12/01   SIOUX

0613 PM    12 NW CHADRON NE               TORNADO
06/12/01   DAWES                          REPORTED BY NWS
                                          PERSONNEL

0709 PM    11 N HEMINGFORD NE             1.00 INCH HAIL
06/12/01   DAWES

0720 PM    11 S CHADRON NE                1.00 INCH HFAIL
06/12/01   DAWES

COX